TRUMP’s 2025 Budget Will Have A HUGE Impact On Housing Affordability

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Will Trump's 2025 Executive Orders Help or Hurt First-Time Homebuyers?

President Trump’s Day 1 executive orders signaled bold moves on housing and inflation. But the real question is: how will they affect YOU as a first-time homebuyer?

Let’s break it down. From housing affordability to oil policy, deregulation to tariffs, this article explores Trump’s biggest policy actions and how they could shape your path to homeownership in 2025 and beyond.

Key Executive Orders Impacting Housing in 2025

1. Emergency Housing Price Relief

One of Trump’s most talked-about orders was the directive on emergency price relief for housing. While the headline sounds promising, the executive order itself was vague. It set a broad policy direction rather than concrete actions.

“It's essentially a suggestion—not a mandate,” says mortgage expert Josh Lewis. "There's no timeline, no budget, just an outline of intent."

What it could mean:

• A shift toward reducing regulations that add to homebuilding costs
• Pressure on local governments to streamline permitting
• A national conversation around affordability through deregulation

While positive in tone, this order is unlikely to impact affordability immediately—especially for those looking to buy in 2025.

2. Energy Policy: “Drill Baby Drill” and Inflation Control

Trump’s renewed push for energy independence, including expanded oil drilling, aims to reduce energy prices—a key driver of inflation.

Why it matters for housing:

• Lower energy prices reduce transportation and construction costs
• Inflation pressures ease, which can bring mortgage rates down

"Energy policy has a downstream impact on bond markets and mortgage rates," says Lewis. "If oil drops to $57 a barrel by 2027, as projected, we could see significant rate relief."

Bottom line: This policy has a clear and likely positive effect on affordability.

3. Reducing Regulatory Costs in New Construction

Citing a National Association of Home Builders report, Trump pointed to the claim that 25% of a home’s cost comes from regulation.

Example: A $440,000 home includes about $110,000 in regulatory costs—from permits, solar mandates, and zoning requirements.

Trump’s policy direction encourages:

• Reviewing federal building guidelines
• Cutting redundant or expensive mandates (e.g., battery storage, tankless water heaters)

"We're not talking about building homes out of cardboard," says Lewis. "We’re talking about cutting red tape that drives up costs unnecessarily."

Impact: Over time, this could lower the cost of new homes, but won't change prices overnight.

4. Tariff Uncertainty: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump's stance on tariffs has evolved. While he initially threatened blanket tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, the actual Day 1 action was more nuanced. Instead of sweeping tariffs, committees were formed to advise on fair trade practices.

“The market feared worst-case scenarios," says Lewis. "But measured, strategic engagement with trade partners is what we’re seeing so far."

Why tariffs matter:

• Higher tariffs on building materials (like lumber, steel) could raise construction costs
• Lower tariffs or smart negotiations reduce cost pressures

Current outlook: The market has responded positively to the restraint shown so far. But this remains a key variable.

5. Immigration Policy and Labor Supply

Immigration policy is deeply tied to the housing and construction industry, especially when it comes to labor supply.

• Trump hasn’t initiated mass deportations
• Focus so far is on criminal records and background checks

Why it matters:

• Skilled labor shortages = higher construction costs
• Stability in immigration = more predictable labor force

"Mass deportation is unlikely," Lewis says. "And a stable labor supply is crucial to keeping building costs from spiking."

Takeaway: For now, immigration policy appears non-disruptive to the housing sector.

The Big Picture: Deregulation, Inflation & Long-Term Affordability

While many of Trump’s Day 1 orders were symbolic, the overarching theme is deregulation and inflation control.

This matters because:

• Inflation = Higher Rates: Mortgage rates spike when inflation rises
• Lower Inflation = Lower Rates: Bond markets stabilize, borrowing becomes cheaper

If Trump’s energy and trade policies succeed in taming inflation, interest rates may fall, improving affordability.

But if tariffs escalate or deregulation stalls, we could see the opposite.

First-Time Homebuyers: What You Need to Know

If you're planning to buy in 2025 or 2026, here are key takeaways:

1. Mortgage Rates Still Drive the Market

Even more than home prices, interest rates determine monthly affordability.

• Keep an eye on inflation reports and Fed rate moves
• Oil prices and tariffs influence rates more than political headlines

2. Real Estate Is a Long-Term Game

If you're buying with a 5+ year time horizon, short-term volatility matters less.

“Homeownership builds wealth through forced savings and long-term appreciation,” says co-host Jeb Smith.

3. Regulatory Reforms Take Time

Changes to zoning, permitting, and building mandates take years to materialize. Don’t wait for perfect conditions.

4. Your Life Stage Still Matters More Than Policy

Getting married? Having kids? Starting a new job? These factors should guide your decision more than politics.

"In 2003, I bought a home for $580,000 that people said was overpriced. It tripled in 22 years," says Lewis. "Not overnight, but it happened."

What To Watch Moving Forward

Stay tuned for updates on:

• How oil prices trend through 2025-2026
• Whether trade negotiations avoid new tariffs
• Congressional action on housing affordability legislation

As Josh Lewis notes, "These executive orders aren’t binding. The real work happens in Congress."

Final Thoughts: Hope vs. Hype

Trump’s Day 1 actions offer hope for affordability, not guarantees. The real impact depends on:

• Implementation timelines
• Congressional cooperation
• Market reactions to inflation

If you're on the sidelines, focus on what you can control:

• Improve your credit
• Save for down payment
• Get pre-approved with a trusted lender

Need help getting started? Go to theeducatedhomebuyer.com/start to connect with our expert team.

And remember, always Buy Right. Borrow Smart. Build Wealth.