Oct. 9, 2025
LIVE 10_08_25 - 15 States Signal a SOFTER Housing Market

We are seeing clear signs of softening as 15 states are now above pre-pandemic inventory levels. While manyregions are still tight, areas that overheated during the pandemic are seeing clear signs of softening. n this LIVE episode we will discuss the current housing market while updating you on mortgage rates and the economy to help you become The Educated HomeBuyer.
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Jeb SmithHuntington Beach Realtor / Orange County Real Estate
DRE #01407449
Real Broker
Josh Lewis
Huntington Beach Certified Mortgage Expert
DRE #01209148
Buywise Mortgage
Mobile: 714-916-5727
Transcript
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Happy Wednesday welcome to
another week of the educated
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home buyer live back on
Wednesday.
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So sorry for all the confusion.
Swipping switching to Tuesday
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now back to Wednesday.
We just.
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Maybe we'll go Thursday next
week, you see?
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Yeah.
Now we're we're back to
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Wednesdays, 5:00.
Going forward, if I can't make
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it or Josh can't make it, then
one of us will just do the show
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without the other.
That way there's no confusion on
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times and all of that good
stuff.
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It's just easier.
This is what you guys know, this
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is what you guys expect, and we
want to keep it consistent so
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that you guys are happy and you
know, we're getting your
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questions answered moving
forward.
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So with that guys, welcome back
Josh Wednesday, your favorite
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day of the week.
How is it?
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I it was not going great, but
then I heard my song and I was
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like, this is a great day.
It's a good day.
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It's a great day to be alive.
I look completely like I'm
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washed out here.
I've got the sun.
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Look at this thing.
It looks like the sun.
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I'm thinking that somehow your
light got cranked up is what
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happened.
Dude, I'll turn this light off
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Watch this.
Is it coming right through the
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crack in the blind?
No, it's coming through the
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actual blind itself.
That's wild.
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It is pretty wild, but it is
what it is.
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So anyway, you guys don't care
about that.
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You care about your questions
and the economy.
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And we are going to talk about
that as we always do.
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We're going to start with some
slides and we're going to answer
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your question.
So do us a favor.
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If you're just joining in, make
sure you put your questions in
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the chat so that we can answer
them and help guide you guys
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through what has been somewhat
of a, I guess kind of a, a calm
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market, Josh, over the last week
since.
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Yeah.
If the government shuts down and
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there's no data, everything's
calm.
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It would just.
Be very, very complacent, like
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everybody's happy with with just
status quo.
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So, but we're going to be
talking about that in a little
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bit more detail.
Any, any, any housekeeping
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items, Josh?
I feel like there was something
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and I don't, I don't remember
what it was, but.
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I was going to say, if we're
going to put up a poll today,
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the poll that I want is do any
of you use the subscribe and
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save on Amazon?
It makes me mad that they offer
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me these discounts but then I
have to deal with their timing,
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which it always seems to either
be too soon or too late that it
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arrives.
For it, it, you are correct.
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I I do use the subscribe and
save and it does both of those
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arrive late and early.
So I just figured if it arrives
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early enough, then at some point
I'll cancel it and I'll have a
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kind of a plethora that I can go
through and then at some point
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we do it again.
But.
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You, you can you.
What you need to do is schedule.
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Because I did have like 4 or
five things on it and it just
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irritated me.
I cut them off.
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You need to set yourself a
little reminder every month to
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go and look at what's coming and
either make them come sooner or
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push them off.
There you go.
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Good advice Josh, just like the
housing advice.
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Words of wisdom.
Pearls of wisdom, here we go.
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So your start.
So tonight's episode is talking
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about 15 states signalling a
little softer housing market.
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So at the moment, there are 15
states back to pre pandemic
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levels, back to where we were in
2019.
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And if you can't read this
chart, understandable.
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The words are very, very small.
So what we've done here is taken
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those 15 and we've put them up
here on the screen so that you
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can take a look at them.
But basically what we're looking
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at is Tennessee, Texas,
Colorado, Arizona, Washington,
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Florida.
I'm having a really hard time
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reading this thing.
Josh, Utah.
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Idaho, Oklahoma, Nevada, Hawaii,
Nebraska, Oregon, Alabama, North
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Carolina and Arkansas.
We call it Oregon.
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It makes the Oregonians really
mad.
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Oh, I love that.
Let's let's we could we do that
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from now on?
That's let's just piss people
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off all over the US.
Josh, no, we don't want to do
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that.
It's Oregon.
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But anyhow, so those states are
back to pre pandemic levels.
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You know, the the last one what
what Arkansas 0%.
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So it's kind of even, but you
know, up at the top, Tennessee,
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Texas, some of these quite a bit
more inventory them, you know,
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in 2019.
So those are gonna be softer
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markets, markets probably where
you're seeing more deals happen.
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Buyers have leverage as opposed
to, you know, where we are here
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in Southern California, Josh,
not a lot of leverage for buyers
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at the moment.
Things seem to be selling still
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pretty quickly at or above the
asking price.
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Still a lot of people sitting on
the fence waiting for the right
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home to come to the market
because quite frankly inventory
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is kind of dissipated from, you
know, the highs that we saw,
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which is normal for this time of
year.
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And with that things are, are
are kind of just naturally
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slowing down on the inventory
front.
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This is anecdotal, so always
take it for what it's worth when
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we're saying just what we see.
But what I generally find the
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buyers that I'm working with are
fairly particular.
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I'm not saying they want a
perfect house, I'm saying that
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they for the most part, and, and
this is been sort of post
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pandemic, when money is tighter,
qualifying is tighter, all of
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your money is going towards the,
the down payment and not having
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a lot of money to do upgrades
afterwards.
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People are wanting the homes
that are upgraded updated that
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look a little bit nicer.
So I don't doubt that there are
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homes out there that are sitting
lingering and selling at
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discounts.
Or they can say is for the most
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part, the buyers that I'm I'm
dealing with, we've talked about
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before, they're buying homes
that are well below the median
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price in the area, which is
where more demand is right now
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and they're gravitating to the
nicer homes in that price point.
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So.
Well, like you said, an
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anecdotal right, I mean, $1.2
million in Arkansas, people like
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you're crazy.
That's a lot of money and
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probably buys you a lot of house
on a lot of land here in
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Southern California.
It's cookie cutter, it's basic,
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it's you know what, not what you
think of as $1,000,000 home for
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most of the country.
So it just, you know, things for
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us are a little bit different
than, you know, other parts of
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the country and, and same for
them versus US here.
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So just make sure you're
following your local market and
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paying attention.
And there's some cool tools to,
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to, to do that, especially now
with some of the, the new data
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things that we have, which we
can talk about here in just a
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second, but it'll actually be
when we talk about this.
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So this is Zillow's heat map of,
of the hottest markets out
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there.
And I think they look at what
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the, the, how many 200 top
metros or something, Josh,
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something along those lines.
So your, your purple's going to
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be your, your neutral markets
where basically buyers, sellers
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kind of equal as you start to
get into, you know, a, a reddish
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tint, we're going to start with
that peachy color.
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And, and that's kind of a warm
market, whereas, you know, red
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is going to be a hot market and
then the bluers are, are colder
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market.
So you can see just pockets kind
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of spread all over the US.
It's not, you know, if you would
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have showed this map in 2021,
the entire damn thing probably
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would have been red.
You know, where, where is now
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obviously considerably slower
than than it was.
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But again, there are pockets out
there that are still hot.
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So if you're in one of those
markets, if you're in one of
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those little squares and you
know, that's your square, then
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you got to pay a little bit more
attention to that data because
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it is it's it pertains more to
you.
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But with that said, we often
talk about working with real
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estate agents in your market
that understand this data.
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There's a link scroll in the
bottom of the screen where if
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you want, I'm happy to connect
you with somebody that does
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business like I do.
I've connected probably 50 plus
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people this year alone.
A lot of people go under
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contract and end up closing.
But the reason I bring this map
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up and some of the data up is
Resi Club, the the same company
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who produced this map now let
you go granular on the data.
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So if you're in a market and you
know that you're just like
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wondering, hey, what's happening
in my market, we can actually
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pull that data up for you.
So, and if we can't, the agent,
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you know that we refer you to
we, we can make sure that they
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have access to it so they can
pull it up for you as well.
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So anyhow, thought that was
helpful.
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Inventory overall more or less
flat 862 to 863.
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I mean more or less 1000 homes
week over week still kind of
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moving flat.
The gap between last year and
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this year's can continuing to to
kind of get closer and closer
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together.
Smaller and smaller gap now
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17.66% more inventory than this
time last year.
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That number will continue to
move lower as we get closer to
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the new year, new listings or
actually talking about
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Huntington Beach and Orange
County.
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So I didn't put the the
percentages on the charts here,
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but Orange County was down
slightly less than a 1% sitting
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at 4433 homes.
So basically flat week over week
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for the most part.
Huntington Beach ticked up just
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a little bit.
I think it was a couple of
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percent, 2% or something.
I think we went from 264 to 270
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homes, so six homes, you know,
again, just less than 3% on
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that.
So inventory kind of just
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bouncing back and forth.
We're probably not going to go
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back over those highs that we've
seen this year.
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And I would, you know, guess
that that we're going to
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continue to see the sideways
downward movement as we head
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into the holiday season.
New listings.
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Again, not going to really get
into too much information here,
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but still up year over year,
weekly pending cells, still up
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year over year, price reductions
basically moving sideways here
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at 41.8%.
That spread, Josh, that we
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talked about last week.
So a small uptick.
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I don't know what the actual
number is where we like 2.2
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point 2 something right now, 2
point.
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Where are we?
235 somewhere in that range.
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So somewhere in that range and
and chances are probably going
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to continue to see something
like that unless some crazy data
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comes out which we don't have.
So this is taking a look at the
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markets that have been impacted
the most with regard to the
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change from the highs that we
saw back in I think it was 2021
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or 2022, just where we've come
from that point, you know,
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overall in those markets.
Is this purchase or sale price
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Jeb?
This is, you know, I think it's,
200
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yeah, median price, probably
median sales price is my guess.
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I don't remember 100%, but I
think it is.
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But Punta Gorda seems to be like
in everything we look at like
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the worst market.
But then you get agents on here
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and Punta Gorda say it's not
that bad.
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I don't know what's happening.
But you know, if you look at the
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first what, 5 up there, what
four of those five are in
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Florida.
So, you know, and, and if you
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start going down, it's a lot of
Texas, a lot of Florida, that's
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where you see the majority of
those.
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But those are also the markets
that solve the biggest gain as
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well.
So even with these downward
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moves in prices, those markets
are still up compared to prior
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to the pandemic.
So it's, you know, you hear
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crashing, you hear all of this
sort of thing.
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And it's more of a, hey, listen,
we're giving back some of the
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craziness that we had during
that period of time, which was
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to be expected.
Josh, this, you know, one of the
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things you and I hear a lot is
that, you know, institutional
219
00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,120
investors own everything and
that that's who you're competing
220
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,240
against and it's BlackRock and
all of these things.
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00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:50,280
And Logan from Housing Wire has
been, you know, you know, smart
222
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,200
to point out that that BlackRock
doesn't actually own any real
223
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,000
estate at all.
They actually own 0 properties,
224
00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,680
but they own entities that do
own some property.
225
00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:01,720
So you're not competing directly
against BlackRock and any of
226
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,920
this stuff.
But this basically just shows
227
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,280
where those markets are located,
where the majority of markets,
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00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:12,120
you know, investors, they own
it, I think at least 100 homes
229
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,360
where their focus is and in, in
this chart.
230
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:17,360
And you know, with regards to
owning the most single family
231
00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,120
homes, Arizona, Maricopa County,
obviously one of those hot
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00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,200
markets where, you know, rental
demand is high, prices were low
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00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,080
for a long period of time.
But you guys can take a look at
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00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,560
that chart just to, to see if
your market's on there.
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00:11:28,560 --> 00:11:32,160
Because if so, there's, you
know, there's a chance that
236
00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,440
that's who your competition is.
But for the majority of us
237
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,520
watching, that's not our
competition.
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00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,560
And this is just another look at
that same chart.
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00:11:40,560 --> 00:11:44,480
Josh, is this did you throw this
one in there or did I throw this
240
00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:45,680
one there?
You you threw it in.
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00:11:45,680 --> 00:11:48,840
It's yeah, the map is cool
because you see the darker areas
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00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,200
are where this is.
So if you're in, you know, like
243
00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,640
you said, Maricopa County, if
you're in one of these areas
244
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,480
that's darker there, it is
absolutely going to feel like
245
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,240
they're in the market because
they've been buying more
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00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,680
recently.
So from that perspective, not a
247
00:12:03,680 --> 00:12:06,240
big factor nationally, but
regionally there.
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00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,000
Are if you're in North Dakota or
South Dakota, you're safe.
249
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,160
You're safe.
You have no competition from
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00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,400
institutions.
Most of Montana.
251
00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:16,800
Or Maine, Maine, you have none.
Like, you know, there's very
252
00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,160
little in those markets, but
anyway.
253
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,320
So not a whole lot of data with
the government shutdown.
254
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,760
So wanted to just go back and
look at some things.
255
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,160
So we've talked about this
before.
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00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,160
Americans aren't moving as much
anymore.
257
00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,800
So in a given year, on the left
side of that chart was 1994.
258
00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,680
So this is over the last 30
years.
259
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:39,040
In a given year, 1617% of
Americans would move.
260
00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,560
That's down to 8%.
That's like half of the movers
261
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,560
of those that move, about half
of them move within the same
262
00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:48,360
county.
And then you look at the numbers
263
00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,800
that are same state, different
county, different state, those
264
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,800
numbers are just way, way down
in terms of of moving.
265
00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:56,960
So mobility impacts a lot of
things.
266
00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,520
It impacts home sales, it
impacts movers, it, it impacts
267
00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:04,960
Home Depot, things of that sort.
So it tells us that you have
268
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,680
some stagnation in the overall
economy and that's sort of a
269
00:13:08,680 --> 00:13:12,320
tailwind that we'll be looking
at until people get more mobile.
270
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,240
Some of this has to do with work
from home and your ability to
271
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,360
stay wherever you are and, and
do a job or find another job
272
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:19,800
without having to relocate to
it.
273
00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,160
But it'll be interesting to see
what that does over the long
274
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:27,240
haul because mobility is overall
positively correlated to the
275
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,560
economy.
Some of this comes down to
276
00:13:29,560 --> 00:13:31,360
interest rate lock in this
chart.
277
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,720
Jeb was was pretty interesting
going back to the early 80s when
278
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,520
rates spiked way, way, way up.
Lock in was much, much worse
279
00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,640
than it is right now.
But lock in is a real thing.
280
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:47,160
So the better part of what from
1984 through 2023, no one was
281
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,400
really locked in, very low lock
in pressure because home prices
282
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,640
hadn't increased that much while
rates were going up.
283
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:56,040
And if we look at that, we are
we're going to look at it here
284
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,320
in the next chart here or the
one after that, you can see we
285
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,800
basically had a 40 year period
of rates going nowhere but down.
286
00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,360
So even though home prices were
going up, interest rates were
287
00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,720
going down.
So moving and mobility was
288
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,960
generally pretty affordable.
What you can see over here on
289
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:13,960
the right side is that the lock
in pressure is easing as rates
290
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,440
have come down a little bit.
But until we get back down to
291
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,440
that blue, it's, it's likely to
see what we talk about here all
292
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,040
the time.
Jeb annual home sales, existing
293
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,960
home sales in that 4 million
range versus the 5 or 6,000,000.
294
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,720
Where do people feel the most
locked in?
295
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,880
Again, the darker here is most
locked into, the lighter is the
296
00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,360
less locked in.
And my theory here with this is
297
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,280
the, the darker states are
generally higher price states.
298
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,760
In those higher priced states,
people are more likely to
299
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,200
refinance.
So if you have $100,000 loan in
300
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,120
Oklahoma and it's at 6% and
rates go to 4%, that's nice, but
301
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:49,560
it's not a, hey, I have to do
this.
302
00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,840
Whereas if you're in San Jose
and you have $1,000,000 home,
303
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,880
you absolutely need to jump on
that and and take advantage,
304
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,680
Josh.
I feel locked in for different
305
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,040
reasons.
I feel locked in to California
306
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,720
because of the weather.
I feel like if the weather was
307
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,760
better in other parts of the
country, I wouldn't care about
308
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:07,920
my rate.
I wouldn't care about any of
309
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,600
that.
I could make the move and figure
310
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:10,280
it out.
But.
311
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,520
If the weather was better in
other parts of the country, your
312
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,840
home would not be worth as much
because people would happily
313
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,200
locate themselves in other parts
of the country.
314
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:19,400
That's fair.
That is fair.
315
00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:24,240
So I like the look at this and
kind of what jumped out at me.
316
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,160
You can see obviously everyone
knows on the right side since
317
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,720
2022, rates have spiked,
subsided a little bit, but still
318
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,000
near that.
But if you see the little Gray
319
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,760
horseshoe there, upside down
field goal posts as rates below
320
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,360
remain below 5%.
During the ZERP era, that zero
321
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,880
interest rate policy where the
government was buying many
322
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:48,400
Treasuries, many mortgage-backed
bonds to stimulate the economy,
323
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,200
and people look at that, well,
they're never going to do that
324
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:51,160
again.
They can't do that.
325
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,800
We have too big a deficit.
So we're never going to see
326
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,480
rates that low.
But if you look well prior to
327
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,320
that, that was a long and
defined downtrend.
328
00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:03,040
Our friend Laci Hunt over at
Hoisington Investment, he's
329
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,840
about due for his quarterly
report, still believes that all
330
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,920
of the underlying trends that
were leading rates lower are
331
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,000
still in place.
So that doesn't mean that
332
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,600
they're going back down to 2 and
3%, but it tells us that that
333
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,680
downtrend may not have seen the
end of its days there.
334
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,240
And there's debate on this.
We have two different camps of
335
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,080
economists out there, one that
thinks the excessive debt from
336
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,240
the government is going to push
rates to the moon, and the other
337
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,360
thinks it's going to slow growth
and push rates down because of
338
00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,000
disinflation.
So we'll see.
339
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,880
We'll see.
We actually got the the the what
340
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,760
the yearly debt today.
It was at 1.9 trillion I
341
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,480
believe.
And they were like, well, it's
342
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,240
basically the same, like
nothing's changed year over
343
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,000
year.
It only improved by 8 billion,
344
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,760
$8 billion, Josh.
It improved by $8 billion and it
345
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,360
that means nothing because.
We're it's a rounding error in
346
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,720
1.9 trillion.
Is that crazy?
347
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,320
Like I was thinking about that.
I'm like $8 billion is a lot of
348
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,440
money and it really means
nothing. 0 anyway.
349
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,400
So government shutdown, but that
doesn't mean our friends at
350
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,119
Trueflation are shut down.
It would be interesting to see
351
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,440
how much of the underlying data
they run the Trueflation numbers
352
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,480
off of our government
statistics.
353
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,280
But anyways, we're up to 2.26
from 2.2 OA week ago.
354
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,839
This is a volatile series.
You can just see just since June
355
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:29,560
here, we've had drops all the
way well under 2% to like 1.85
356
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,720
and then runs up to like the 2.3
range overtime.
357
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,040
This will give us a good
indication and tell us what's
358
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,880
happening with inflation.
It appears to be a choppy
359
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,960
sideways, slightly uptrend, but
time will tell.
360
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,320
What are the futures market
betting on interest rates Still
361
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,120
thinking a 95% chance we're
getting a cut next month and
362
00:17:50,120 --> 00:17:54,080
then an 80% chance at one of the
next two meetings.
363
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,080
So Fed cuts are already there.
We've talked about this a little
364
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,200
bit.
Fed cuts absent A recession or a
365
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,760
recession coming shortly after,
those Fed cuts don't generally
366
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,080
lead to much lower interest
rates.
367
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,280
So we haven't seen rates dip a
whole heck of a lot when we went
368
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,480
from 70 to 95% chance of a cut
at the next meeting.
369
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,680
So we'll, we'll see.
We need, we need the government
370
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,400
to open back up and give us some
data to, to move those lower.
371
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,840
So rates pretty much flat over
the last week, flat over the
372
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,880
last month, definitely about 1/4
percent better over the the last
373
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,920
year.
But rates are at good levels,
374
00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:29,360
not quite as good as we had
after the Fed meeting.
375
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,320
But again, really well qualified
borrowers are getting better
376
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,160
rates than this.
So I mean, to the point IA
377
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,040
listener here, Jeb, we have in
in escrow in Texas that is
378
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,680
probably it was going to go
USDA, but because the government
379
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,280
shutdown is likely not going to
be able to close on time on new
380
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,640
construction and the builder
said, hey, figure it out.
381
00:18:48,120 --> 00:18:50,960
So figuring it out, we just
looked at the FHA and for him
382
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,360
with a very good credit score, 0
points, 5.625 on an FHA.
383
00:18:55,360 --> 00:18:57,960
So take that chart with a grain
of salt, but definitely check
384
00:18:57,960 --> 00:18:59,560
see what we can do.
We can help you with that.
385
00:19:00,120 --> 00:19:02,520
Yeah, and if you want to get in
touch with Josh, the team, that
386
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,360
link, scroll in the bottom
there, Jeb smith.net/start,
387
00:19:05,360 --> 00:19:06,720
we'll get you in touch with
them.
388
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,760
And if you're one of those
people that, you know, you just
389
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:14,040
like to use QR code because
you're watching on your TV,
390
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,200
there's AQR code up there at the
top left that will also get you
391
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,640
to the same spot if you scan it.
So do that.
392
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,680
And while you're doing that, let
us know what questions you have.
393
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:28,640
We're going to dive into them
right now and hopefully educate
394
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,080
some home buyers out there,
Josh.
395
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:35,760
So let's see what we've got.
You know, we don't have a lot of
396
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,160
questions.
We got a lot of comments.
397
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,520
A lot of comments.
We'll go with this one.
398
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:44,000
That's our first question.
Also I think maybe the only one
399
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,240
on everything else's comments,
but miscellaneous of the
400
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,880
whatever says hello.
Does escrow analysis only look
401
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,640
at the current year?
I am getting a refund but the
402
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,200
monthly payment for the upcoming
year is going up.
403
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,560
I'm not complaining, I'm getting
a refund.
404
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:02,280
So Josh, what did they look at
when they're re evaluating every
405
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,760
year?
If it's a small refund and you
406
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,280
haven't bought this home
recently, I wouldn't worry too
407
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,280
much about it.
If it's a very large refund.
408
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,040
I've had clients get excited
about this.
409
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,240
There should never be a very
large refund from your impound
410
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,000
account.
And I've seen people get like
411
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,640
hey I just got $3000 back and
you're like that is not correct.
412
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,800
It was someone who had bought
new construction that the idiot
413
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,400
at the company that does the
impound analysis looked up the
414
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,400
tax rate and it hadn't been
reassessed.
415
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,080
So the builders raw land was
assessed at $2.00 and they paid
416
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,200
$400,000 for the house and we're
going to get their their
417
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,320
assessment and their tax bill
based off of that.
418
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,160
But again, we've got people most
likely out of the country that
419
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,040
have no idea how our property
taxes work that don't know that
420
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,200
that doesn't make sense.
So be very careful if any of
421
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,280
those things apply to you.
But do does it?
422
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:51,600
Do they only look at the current
year?
423
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,000
They look forward at the next
year.
424
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,280
So when they do that analysis,
they're looking at your current
425
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,000
insurance, what's the premium?
They're looking at your current
426
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,720
assessed value and your annual
taxes.
427
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:02,600
And then they look at your
monthly payment.
428
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,120
And then the software looks
forward the next 12 months and
429
00:21:05,120 --> 00:21:08,320
it says, do we ever exceed the
amount that we're allowed to
430
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,280
have in the account?
They're allowed to have a
431
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,120
cushion in there to make sure
that you have enough and there
432
00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:17,080
is a, a maximum amount by law.
And that forward look says, hey,
433
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,720
do we get too much in this
account at any point in the next
434
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,080
12 months?
And if so, they give you a
435
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,760
refund.
If you're short at any point of
436
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,200
the Max cushion that they're
allowed to have, they will say,
437
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,440
hey, you're $500 short.
So we're going to have $42.00 a
438
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,000
month to your payment for the
next year.
439
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,560
Yes they will.
Yes they will.
440
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,080
He also goes.
Hold on, hold on.
441
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,080
He follows up with the bad, bad
news.
442
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:42,400
A $2600 refund on a new build.
Put that money in the bank
443
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,720
because you are exactly what I
told you.
444
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,160
What we just talked about is
exactly what happened to you.
445
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,440
A child or someone outside of
our country did your escrow
446
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,440
impound analysis and they don't
understand that what the
447
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,960
property was assessed at is not
what the property will be
448
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,080
assessed at.
And that assessment will be
449
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,800
coming and it will be
retroactive to when you purchase
450
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,240
that at home in most states in
the country.
451
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,640
So I would reach out to your
servicer and I would ask to talk
452
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,840
to a supervisor and see if
someone can take a closer look
453
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,080
at your analysis and explain to
them that this was a purchase of
454
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,200
new construction and you don't
think this refund is accurate or
455
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,600
you can hold the money because
it is going to go back into that
456
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,920
impound at some point.
There you go.
457
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:28,640
I just I was clicking on another
one from the same viewer there.
458
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,440
She said they do do the yes and
subscribe.
459
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,040
We're talking about Amazon here,
subscribe and save, but their
460
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,240
their prices change monthly.
So it's not always cheaper.
461
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,280
That is something I've
definitely noticed, like when I
462
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,560
go order products again, if you
go into your orders and you
463
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,000
know, you can just buy it again,
I never do that.
464
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,280
I always go and research like
search the product again to
465
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,840
figure out if the price is the
same because that's what I worry
466
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,840
about like, hey, we'll just
change that thing a couple
467
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:52,920
bucks.
I'll never know because of
468
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:54,800
reordering.
I don't know, Josh.
469
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,360
I'm cheap like that, man.
Well, I, I think they do.
470
00:22:57,360 --> 00:22:59,280
They do count on that, that
you're not going to watch it and
471
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,240
look and see what it is.
That's the problem with the
472
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,600
Internet in general and shopping
online.
473
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,240
That's how we do all of our
shopping now.
474
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,240
And they can figure out dynamic
pricing.
475
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,160
They know from your shopping
habits if you're price sensitive
476
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:12,400
or not.
And if you're price sensitive,
477
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,280
you get better offerings than
non price sensitive buyers.
478
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:17,880
You know, I feel like there's a
lawsuit there, Josh.
479
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,400
Orange Pulp, there's a listing
that says the seller's offering
480
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,240
buyer to take over the rate of
1.9%, but only if the buyer
481
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:27,600
qualifies.
Is that legit?
482
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,400
I would think that's probably
legit.
483
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,600
It's probably, I mean it's got
to be an assumable loan.
484
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:39,000
FHA or VA is is my guess.
And it's probably a 15 year loan
485
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,640
to some degree.
If it's at if it's under 2%
486
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,440
would be my guess.
I mean, I know there were some
487
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:47,200
low VA loans done it sometime,
but I don't know if they were
488
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,480
under 2 without some sort of buy
down.
489
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,040
I mean, I have one right now
that is in escrow where I'm
490
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:57,440
representing the seller and it's
the, the buyer is getting 2.75%
491
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,480
on a VA loan with 26 years
remaining on that loan.
492
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,840
And we're going through the
process.
493
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,600
It's it's been a drag a little
bit.
494
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,240
I mean, we're probably 45 days
into this and probably still
495
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,560
have another 45 left at least to
get through it.
496
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,360
But yeah, the buyer has to
qualify.
497
00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:15,600
That's with any mortgage that
you get, so.
498
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,320
I would bet large amounts of
money it's VA.
499
00:24:18,360 --> 00:24:22,040
And the reason being is VA and
FHA rates are very similar.
500
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,360
But on an FHA streamline
refinance, which if you're
501
00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:29,120
refinancing your, your FHA,
there's a maximum mortgage
502
00:24:29,120 --> 00:24:30,800
calculation.
So they can't just say, hey,
503
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,400
here's two 2 1/2 three points,
which the call centers love
504
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,840
having you pay a bunch of points
to get an ultra low interest
505
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,440
rate.
So below two 2% even on the
506
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,200
government stuff, I don't think
we ever got there with 0 points.
507
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:47,000
And most FHA buyers don't have
extra cash sitting around to, to
508
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,480
pay for the buy down.
So I'll bet you it was VA.
509
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,680
So as long as you qualify, it's
it's amazing.
510
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,040
I we you could we should make a
a video about that Jeb of just
511
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,760
quantifying what the difference
in terms of value, like the
512
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,960
difference between 1.9 and to
even 5 1/2 is a monstrous
513
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,360
difference in the value of that
home.
514
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Oh, agreed.
Yeah.
515
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,400
I mean, if they're going to do
that, I mean, I feel like the
516
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,480
the seller can charge somewhat
of a premium on that property in
517
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,600
order to, you know, when selling
it just because, hey, listen,
518
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,640
that this is, you know,
something that you can take
519
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,040
advantage of where nobody else
in the neighborhood probably
520
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,960
can, can compete with that.
But anyway, yeah, kill switch
521
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,400
basically saying, hey, listen, I
I'm sitting on the sidelines.
522
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,200
But if I were able to get that,
then I would, you know, I'd go
523
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,080
after it too.
Yeah.
524
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,720
And that's The thing is the
problem with a lot of the
525
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,240
assumable stuff, and this is
important to point out to, to
526
00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:40,560
orange pulp there is that if
there's equity there, though,
527
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,080
that's, that's this is the
kicker.
528
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,960
Everybody wants to take over the
the low rate, but not everyone
529
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,880
understands that in order to do
that, if there's equity built in
530
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,440
that property, you have to come
up with that difference, right?
531
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:58,040
So let's say for example, you
know, it was a VA loan and for
532
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:02,680
example, they bought it for
$500,000 back in 2020 or 2021.
533
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,280
They've got some equity in that
property at this point.
534
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,040
You know, it's not a lot, but it
might be ten, $15,000 or
535
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,840
something in, in that property.
When order to buy it.
536
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,400
You got to come up with that
difference, right?
537
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,800
On the property that I'm talking
about, we're selling it for one,
538
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,600
just over a million million.
I don't remember what the price
539
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,240
was.
Now 1,000,050 or something like
540
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,800
that is what we sold it for.
And she only owes 540 something
541
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,680
on the on the mortgage.
So the buyer had to come up with
542
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,760
over $500,000 to make it work.
They had it.
543
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,880
So it works, but a lot of people
don't have that.
544
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,600
And that's where these deal, you
know, these deals fall apart
545
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,520
because we're they don't make
sense for for buyers because
546
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:39,520
they don't have that down
payment.
547
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,320
Well, here's the the crazy.
The crazy follow up job is they
548
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,680
actually cut the listing price
by 50% since 2022.
549
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,520
So there's something very
interesting going on with that
550
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,760
property either.
They were on crack in 2022 when
551
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,160
they listed it.
Or they really thought that
552
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,640
there was monstrous value.
In the send me the address.
553
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,480
I'd be interested, like if you
have my e-mail, actually just my
554
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,440
first name.
Yeah, just send it to
555
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,320
info@theeducatedhomebuyer.com,
Josh, and I'll check it out.
556
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,360
I I'd be interested to see it
myself and just kind of do some,
557
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,800
you know, research on it.
I love staying, you know, seeing
558
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,800
things like that.
I like looking at homes across
559
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,320
the country too, just because
it's it's interesting versus
560
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,960
seeing the same thing over and
over here in California.
561
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,320
Willing is asking some loan
questions.
562
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,360
Auto loan questions I think
well, hold on here we.
563
00:27:29,360 --> 00:27:32,360
Got we got, so we, we got some,
some other questions for us
564
00:27:32,360 --> 00:27:34,240
here.
So Cesar says, hey, Josh, just
565
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,480
got my realtor's license.
Any recommendations or tips on
566
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:42,080
what I should look for in a
broker to hang my license?
567
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,280
I think you're the right one to
answer that, Jeb.
568
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,000
And I want to frame it just a
little, little clearer for
569
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,600
Cesar.
If you're going out and looking
570
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,960
for a new broker, I think that's
very different than the new
571
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,080
licensee.
So what would you look for in a
572
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,520
new broker to hang your license
with?
573
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,720
And what would you recommend a a
newly licensed salesperson do?
574
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,680
You know, newly licensed.
Don't get caught up in the shiny
575
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,040
objects that the brokerages tell
you that they have, right?
576
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,640
Every brokerage out there is
going to say that they have all
577
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,840
of this stuff that's going to,
you know, make it efficient and,
578
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,640
and do your basically do your
job for you.
579
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,440
The reality is it's going to
come down to you doing the
580
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,280
prospecting, you know, finding
the clients, doing all of that.
581
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,640
So no brokerage is going to do
that for you for the most part.
582
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,600
With that said, I just took in a
breath, Josh.
583
00:28:32,120 --> 00:28:33,840
I was like choked.
I don't even know what happened,
584
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,760
but what I would be looking for
if I was newly licensed is some
585
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,800
sort of guidance.
Is there a mentor there?
586
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,800
Is there someone to bounce
questions off of?
587
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,640
Is there someone that can help
me write offers, that can walk
588
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,760
me through contracts, that can,
you know, kind of just give me
589
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,080
the basics of what I need to do
or give me some sort of game
590
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,360
plan that I can go out and
follow every single day to
591
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,000
hopefully become successful as a
real estate agent.
592
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,720
What most agents think is, hey,
listen, I'm just going to get my
593
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,560
license and all my friends and
family, they're going to list
594
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,040
their homes with me and then
that's what's going to be my
595
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,080
business.
The reality is everybody knows a
596
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,560
couple of different real estate
agents for the most part, right
597
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,880
here in Orange County.
Most people probably know two or
598
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,120
three real estate agents.
So it's not just knowing an
599
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,440
agent, it's somebody that can
provide value and guide you
600
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,080
through that process.
So, you know, happy to have a
601
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,480
chat with you offline, Caesar,
and give you some more direction
602
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,320
here.
But you know, I, I would, I
603
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,400
don't know that you need to go
with a big brokerage, but I
604
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,720
also, you know, wouldn't,
wouldn't necessarily go with the
605
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,280
mom and pops either.
I would go somewhere and
606
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,600
probably in between.
But you you just need need to
607
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,920
either get on a team or find a
mentor or somebody that can
608
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,080
guide you.
Would be helpful helpful to have
609
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,600
other people around that can you
can learn by osmosis and
610
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,960
experience from them.
All right, willing.
611
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,480
Do you frown on auto loans, Josh
on the smaller side, I would
612
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:56,400
like to what I would like to.
Live live his whole life with
613
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,160
that one.
So are we talking about so
614
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,320
willing is in the mortgage
business for those of you that
615
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,520
don't know are you talking about
as a loan officer seeing auto
616
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,560
loans or me personally with auto
loans?
617
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,680
I've had auto loans.
I attempt to pay them off as
618
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,120
quickly as possible.
I don't personally like one for
619
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,400
borrowers.
It really is it in does does it
620
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,640
make sense in the context of
their income, in their financial
621
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,080
life?
I see people regularly that have
622
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,320
autos that make no sense in the
amount of money they make, the
623
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:27,960
amount of savings that they
have.
624
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,640
So from that perspective, I
don't have a problem with
625
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,840
someone having an auto loan, but
just make sure that it it makes
626
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,760
sense and it's not keeping you
from from meeting your goals.
627
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,240
Like Jeb knows.
I, I look at new trucks all the
628
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,480
time and I look at it and I go,
OK, here's what it's going to
629
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,600
cost me for the next 24 months
or 36 months to get that thing
630
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,600
paid off.
And I prefer my old 2017 truck.
631
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,600
You know, I don't disagree with
that.
632
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,360
That's it's nice not having car
payments, that's for sure.
633
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,400
Platinum black.
How often do those assumable VA
634
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,320
loans fall through?
Still have my eye on a place
635
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,120
that went back under contract
two months ago.
636
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,600
So I, you know, I would, I don't
have any real data to provide
637
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,760
here.
I would think most people going
638
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,280
into the assumable loan process,
the only reason it falls apart
639
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,400
is if the buyer ends up changing
their mind for some reason.
640
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,040
I would say more often than not,
those people are going to
641
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,040
qualify, right?
Like for the one that I had,
642
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,880
they were qualifying, they had
$500,000 down and they qualified
643
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,800
for over $1,000,000 loan at
current interest rates.
644
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,280
So there's no world in which
they wouldn't qualify at a 2.75%
645
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,880
interest rate.
So in that case, you know, I, I
646
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,680
think the, the, the probability
that falling through is pretty
647
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,720
low.
But I mean, does it happen?
648
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,640
I'm sure it does.
I just too, too difficult to
649
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,480
say.
I mean, most agents out there
650
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,560
are vetting, you know, the
clients just so they're not
651
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,840
wasting 6090 days with somebody
that's not going to to actually,
652
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,480
you know, close the deal.
And what I would say if we're
653
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,400
looking at it going, hey, it's
been under contract for two
654
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,560
months.
Is something going wrong with an
655
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,200
assumption you would expect two
to four months?
656
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,600
Like 2 months would be faster
for it to get done.
657
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:12,040
All right, let's see here.
Sylvia says if I am looking for
658
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,880
some passive income, can I
convert my garage to a studio
659
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,640
rented out in California?
Is it a straightforward process
660
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,840
forward?
Process forward Josh I like Ford
661
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,480
and Ford are the same word to
me, like the truck and.
662
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,480
Forward.
Straightforward.
663
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,160
Are the same word.
So I just you know, so if you
664
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,880
ever heard me say Ford and
you're like he's a truck.
665
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,320
No, I'm talking about moving
forward.
666
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:41,480
But anyway, can you do that?
You know, you still need to get
667
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,640
it approved through the city.
You can't just convert your I
668
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,280
mean, you can, but not legal,
right?
669
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:53,520
The state of California says
that you can do conversions to
670
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,600
garages and, and Addy Adu and
that sort of thing.
671
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:58,680
But different cities have
different codes.
672
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,160
Here in Huntington Beach is not
as straightforward as that,
673
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,200
right?
There are definitely different
674
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,240
regulations and restrictions and
it's, you know, if there's an
675
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,160
HOA there, you know, could be
issues there.
676
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,040
So is it, it's not
straightforward like you're
677
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,600
asking, is it doable?
It is in most cases.
678
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,440
It's just, you know, check with
the city and see what the what
679
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,680
the process is.
I saw another question here.
680
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,440
Josh Grace says, do you
recommend investor friendly
681
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,240
Realtors around the country?
I'm not sure I understand the
682
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,760
question.
So if the question is, are
683
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,080
you're looking to buy an
investment property and you're
684
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,160
trying to find an area of the
country to put that, do I know
685
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,400
of any Realtors that do that
sort of thing?
686
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,040
The answer is yes.
Outside of that, I think I would
687
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,360
need more clarification on what
the the question is and I can I
688
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,720
can help guide you through
through the the answer there.
689
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:56,360
James, I am under contract with
a seller that has their new
690
00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,200
perspective home contingent upon
the sell of the current primary
691
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:04,520
residence they are selling to me
as a buyer, anything I should be
692
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:09,800
concerned about?
I mean the, the, the downside is
693
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:14,800
you if the seller doesn't find
the replacement property, right?
694
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:18,360
So you're you're contingent,
your purchase is contingent on
695
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,639
them finding a home.
I think I think he's saying that
696
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:25,239
their purchase is contingent
upon his closing.
697
00:34:25,639 --> 00:34:28,280
Oh, no, which is totally normal,
yeah.
698
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,719
I mean, nothing to be concerned
with on that, that front, right?
699
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,360
I mean, you have to close and
then and the seller can close on
700
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,280
their house that that would be
the process.
701
00:34:36,199 --> 00:34:40,040
Anything to be concerned with
timelines perhaps, right.
702
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,560
You know, the seller's going to
need, if they need the proceeds
703
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:47,360
from the sell of their home
because of your closing, they're
704
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:51,760
going to need, you know, if you,
if you close on say Monday,
705
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,440
they're probably going to need a
couple of extra days for that
706
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,160
money to make it into escrow or
title or whatever.
707
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:01,760
Get wired out to the the other
escrow title company in order
708
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,840
for that one to close and then
to be able to move out.
709
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,360
So you just need to be able to
fill that gap with a couple of
710
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,320
days.
That's really the only concern.
711
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,080
Outside of that, nothing that I
can can really think of.
712
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,720
But if you have additional
questions, just drop it in there
713
00:35:13,720 --> 00:35:18,200
and we'll answer them.
Let's see.
714
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,960
They want to stay in the home
three days after closing.
715
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,720
Completely normal that that
would be that they would need to
716
00:35:24,720 --> 00:35:26,840
for the most part.
In fact, I have one right now
717
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,160
where we're selling their
property, they're buying new
718
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,840
construction and they need the
proceeds from this to, to to
719
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,200
close that property.
Can it happen in the same day?
720
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:40,440
It can it just you need some
sort of buffer there just in
721
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,800
case, right?
Because depending on the area,
722
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,160
the county, whatever, like here
in Orange County where we're
723
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,240
located, when a loan funds, it
can actually record that same
724
00:35:49,240 --> 00:35:53,640
day and the buyer can get keys
that day in LA County, which is,
725
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,000
you know, depending on where you
are in LA County.
726
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,080
I mean, you can go 15 minutes
down the road and be in LA
727
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,560
County.
And if it funds on, you know,
728
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,720
today, it can't record until
tomorrow.
729
00:36:03,720 --> 00:36:06,200
So that that delay needs to be
factored in there.
730
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,640
So I, I wouldn't be concerned
with, with the request.
731
00:36:10,240 --> 00:36:17,000
All right, Josh, do mortgage
lenders switch or get recruited
732
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,440
to other companies often like
real estate agents?
733
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,480
Pretty similar.
It's more common.
734
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,040
We've talked about the different
types of lenders, whether you're
735
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,720
a broker, direct lender.
If you're direct lender, do you
736
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:30,760
work for a bank or do you work
for an independent mortgage
737
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,480
bank?
In that independent mortgage
738
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:37,160
bank world, they love recruiting
top producing lenders from other
739
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,280
firms and even going so far as
to give giant signing bonuses
740
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,520
that generally lead to a higher
rates and fees with those
741
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,720
lenders.
And then also unhappy loan
742
00:36:47,720 --> 00:36:50,560
officers being stuck with a
contract where they have to kind
743
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:55,400
of earn out that signing bonus.
I'm talking 102 hundred $300,000
744
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,800
signing bonuses, which basically
it's a, it's a projection on,
745
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,240
hey, the last three years you've
done this much production.
746
00:37:01,240 --> 00:37:03,360
If you bring that over here,
it's worth this much to us.
747
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,640
We'll give you that check
upfront.
748
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,880
So I don't think they're, I
don't think they're all that
749
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:08,840
different.
What do you think, Jim?
750
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,120
No, I see it happen.
You know, some of the, some of
751
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,600
the bigger, you know, names
teams out there that are, that
752
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,080
are working with banks, often
times will will make a move from
753
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,360
one bank to to another.
Like I, you know, some other
754
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,360
blenders that that I use on
occasion that are friends of
755
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:27,840
mine.
I mean, they've been at Wells
756
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:32,560
Fargo, Bank of America, U.S.
bank just moved a new American
757
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,240
funding.
I mean, they're, they're moving
758
00:37:34,240 --> 00:37:38,680
around all of these different
places because my guess is it's,
759
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:43,200
it's, you know, some sort of
incentive for for them and
760
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:44,720
potentially, you know, their
clients.
761
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:47,840
There's maybe some sort of bonus
there in incentive wise to be
762
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,480
able to to do that and upfront
money.
763
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,400
A lot of times, like Josh said,
there's some sort of payday for,
764
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,960
for bringing business over and,
and staying with the company,
765
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,720
but there's usually some sort of
contract as well, which
766
00:37:59,720 --> 00:38:02,120
basically means that you got to
stay here, you know, extra
767
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:03,720
amount of time.
Yeah, you're trapped.
768
00:38:03,720 --> 00:38:06,640
I've been there on, on the on
the real estate side and it's,
769
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,840
it's nice upfront, but it, you
know, when you want to make that
770
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:15,000
move, it kind of sucks.
Anyhow, what do we got, Mr.
771
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,640
Lewis?
We're we're light on questions.
772
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:20,520
You guys don't.
We've answered all the questions
773
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,920
over the last five years.
Should we play the song again?
774
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,360
We can play the song again that
you can ask questions about the
775
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:29,520
writing of the song, how long
Jeb slaved over the lyrics, the
776
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,400
the performer, the the, the
celebrity performer that we have
777
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,640
singing the song.
I mean, if you can guess, we can
778
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:39,560
give you a a bonus for that.
You know, I I I felt like so I I
779
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,760
saw something today.
It's like one of the AI bands.
780
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,040
It's like trending at the top of
Spotify.
781
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,320
It's like velvet, the velvet
ropes or the velvet something
782
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,880
like people had no idea that
this was AII don't even.
783
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,320
I don't know that I've ever
heard them, but.
784
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,120
It's it's a scam all the way
around it.
785
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,600
They're they have bots that are
going and listening to it.
786
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,920
So then it works its way up the
charts and then other people go,
787
00:38:59,920 --> 00:39:01,120
well, other people are listening
to this.
788
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,680
Let me listen to it.
Spotify can throw it in other
789
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,480
people's playlists because if
you look at it, everything about
790
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:11,560
you can't tell from hearing it,
but if you if you look at all of
791
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,680
their images like those are not.
Real people, when you go watch
792
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,640
them in concert, you.
Can watch them in concert.
793
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,000
You're really clear.
Those are not humans.
794
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,360
There's like, there's no one up
there too funny.
795
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,200
It's like Milli Vanilli.
Josh, do we do?
796
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,920
Do you in the audience know who
Milli Vanilli is?
797
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,080
That's what I want to know.
Not do you know who did you
798
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,680
listen to?
Blame it on the rain in Was it
799
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,480
90s or was that the 80s, Josh?
That was the late 80s, like 89 I
800
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,840
believe.
And here's the thing, everyone
801
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,360
likes to bust on Milli Vanilli
because they were not real.
802
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:43,840
They were real.
They were.
803
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,440
Real people, if you had your
Nissan truck in 1989, you were
804
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,400
bombing, blaming on the rain,
cruising around with your 18
805
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,120
inch woofers.
Like, let's just be realistic
806
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,240
about it.
Yeah, JBLS just in the back,
807
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,840
just making the truck rattle.
Yeah, I didn't.
808
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,600
I didn't have a car in.
I, I, I had some, some 18 inch
809
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:03,600
Rockfords in the back just
pounding.
810
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,240
My dad would come out and yell
and turn that off.
811
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:09,120
I'm like, you can't hear it.
And then now being an adult and
812
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,120
knowing like you could hear it
from like 5 miles away.
813
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,680
So while I was trying to tell my
dad.
814
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:14,240
He couldn't hear it.
I don't know.
815
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,800
Too funny.
All right, let's see.
816
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,000
Orange Pulp wants to know if he
should post that listing and you
817
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,560
can pull it up and we can live
live stream it and.
818
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,600
Yeah, let's do it.
Let's do it, throw it in there.
819
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,040
Orange pulp, we got no
questions.
820
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,920
So we're going to do a a live
breakdown of a 50% price cut on
821
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,600
a on a home.
And we're going to try to tell
822
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,200
you what we think about it.
There we go.
823
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,320
Let's let's give me the address.
We're going to pull this thing
824
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:41,680
up.
We're just going to use Zillow.
825
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:48,160
Make it easy, all right, waiting
on you.
826
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:49,920
We didn't.
We didn't tell him fast enough.
827
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:51,200
They've gone down something
else.
828
00:40:51,240 --> 00:40:52,800
Good.
He's he's still here.
829
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,000
She, he.
I don't know.
830
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,960
Or they call them.
What?
831
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:02,200
What are we thinking?
Willing do not buy a Jeep junk.
832
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,960
I own one major electric, you
know.
833
00:41:06,240 --> 00:41:15,360
There you go.
Well, Josh, it's really quiet
834
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:16,840
here.
We don't have a lot going on
835
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:17,880
this evening.
What are we doing?
836
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,000
Patrick still has his car from
89.
837
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,040
Oh I had an 89 Honda Accord that
was my first car.
838
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,640
An 89 accord.
My first that was in that was in
839
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,720
96.
Mine was an 89 Toyota pickup in
840
00:41:32,720 --> 00:41:35,800
90.
Oh, so you had like a new car?
841
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,480
It was it had 3000 miles on it.
Someone bought it and was over
842
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,400
their skis and my mom bought it
for them for significantly less.
843
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,680
My mom liked to to do things
like that.
844
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,440
Well, it's smart.
You know, I had a the Honda
845
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,080
Accord, I think mine probably
already had like 100,000 miles
846
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,320
on it in like 6 years of
whatever before I owned it and
847
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,360
I'm pretty sure that thing's
still running.
848
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:03,840
My my 2500 miles on it when I
got it and I had like 129 on it
849
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:08,360
when I sold it.
So Patrick's was a Beretta the
850
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,040
old.
Beretta, look at that thing.
851
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,080
And Willing comes back and says
that Gwen wants a Wrangler or a
852
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,840
gladiator.
No one wants a gladiator.
853
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,760
There's no one on the planet
that wants a gladiator, so let's
854
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,480
just say that.
All right.
855
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:21,480
So we don't have a lot of
questions.
856
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:26,560
We're going to go with Sylvia.
Has the market slowed at all now
857
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,480
that we're heading into the
holiday season?
858
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,160
So I think there are definitely
markets out there that have
859
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:32,880
slowed down.
You know, I was talking to
860
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,040
somebody today, I went to a
conference earlier talking to
861
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:40,280
some other real estate agents.
And I would say like May through
862
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:45,640
early August, the market had
kind of shifted not into a full
863
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,320
buyers market, but more so into
a buyers market than we've seen
864
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,160
in a long time.
And a lot of markets out there
865
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,880
now, some markets are still hot
as you saw from that heat map
866
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,040
earlier.
But once rates started to come
867
00:42:55,040 --> 00:43:00,000
down, got below 6 1/2 percent,
moved closer to 6%, I saw
868
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,200
activity pick up.
I had a couple listings on the
869
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,560
market that all of a sudden they
had been sitting.
870
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:06,560
All of a sudden everything went
under contract.
871
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,440
And now I'm writing offers and
they're multiple offer
872
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,160
situations and things are
selling above the asking price.
873
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,720
So has it slowed?
I think it has in some some
874
00:43:15,720 --> 00:43:17,640
markets.
It's just kind of continuing,
875
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,080
you know, not where it was a
couple years ago, but it's
876
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:22,600
there's definitely activity out
there.
877
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,200
I mean, you, you see pending
contracts are up.
878
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:29,440
You see, you know that, you
know, buyer demand is still out
879
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,720
there.
Mortgage, mortgage applications
880
00:43:32,720 --> 00:43:34,240
jumped as soon as rates came
down.
881
00:43:34,240 --> 00:43:37,080
So there's people on the fence
just waiting just about the
882
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,000
right property.
So when the right one comes out,
883
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,840
you know, or comes up rather you
get, you get people willing to
884
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:43,240
pick offers, make offers on
them.
885
00:43:43,240 --> 00:43:47,280
So just it's local, pay
attention to your market.
886
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,520
Josh Orange Pulp just ditched
us.
887
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,600
They went they went and found
ATV show or a.
888
00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:56,560
Kind of excited and left.
Not much of a baseball guy,
889
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,960
Josh, but baseball playoffs are
good.
890
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,160
Not a Yankees fan, not a Blue
Jays fan.
891
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,480
Great game last night.
I don't, I don't pay attention
892
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,400
until we at least get to the
change.
893
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,400
I mean a little too early for
me.
894
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,080
Good game, really good game.
I enjoyed watching it.
895
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,720
This is the only time I enjoy
watching baseball anyhow.
896
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,120
That's, you know, that's what
we're talking about now, because
897
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,320
that's where we are in the show
anyhow, up and cut it.
898
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,000
Is that what we're doing?
I think so.
899
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,400
We got, we got no more
questions.
900
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,600
Angel Eyes did say they have a
64 Riviera as the first vehicle.
901
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:35,320
I like that Toyota Camry 2005.
Toyota Camry with 184,000 miles.
902
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,920
I like it.
Are we going to dress up for
903
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,320
Halloween Josh, my dog is going
to dress up as a skunk for?
904
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:43,680
Halloween.
Does that count?
905
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,240
No.
Are you going to show up on?
906
00:44:46,240 --> 00:44:50,000
Wednesday the 29th dressed as a
skunk as well dressed.
907
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:54,640
As a skunk.
I will probably not Is. 29th you
908
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,040
can't, you can't dress up.
Don't be the weirdo that you had
909
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,840
a party like 2 days before
Halloween and you people already
910
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:04,000
having Halloween parties now.
Yeah, no, you dress up on.
911
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:05,640
Halloween or you don't dress up
at all.
912
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,040
All right.
Well, guys, not a.
913
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,640
Lot of stuff here, so I'm just
going to promote the show.
914
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,440
If you don't listen to the
Educated Home Buyer podcast, you
915
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:16,000
should.
If you haven't rated and
916
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:20,120
reviewed it, you should.
If you haven't subscribed, you
917
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,840
should.
And here on my channel, if
918
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,120
you're not subscribed, I
understand why.
919
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:26,640
I mean, we do this sort of
podcast.
920
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,520
Why would you?
Why would you even be a part of
921
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,120
this?
I mean, who would want to listen
922
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:34,600
to this sort of thing?
But we appreciate you and we
923
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:36,280
appreciate you showing up.
If you want to get in touch with
924
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,200
Josh, there's a link on the
bottom of the screen.
925
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,600
What do we got here?
Platinum Black has a He's got
926
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,160
his deceased grandpa's 90s.
Thunderbird.
927
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,360
It smelled like an ash tray on
wheels.
928
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,000
Yeah, we.
Found.
929
00:45:50,240 --> 00:45:53,200
We found our audience's passion.
Here they want to talk about
930
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:55,160
their the cars of their youth.
We should.
931
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,320
What we should do is have them
all send in pictures and we can
932
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,160
just do it like a carousel and
show everyone's pictures.
933
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,400
I'm down for that.
I think that I would get behind.
934
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:07,320
That, yeah, I like, I was hot
boxed in the car as a kid.
935
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,080
Like, dad would smoke in there.
It wasn't allowed to roll down
936
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:11,560
the windows.
If I'd roll down the windows,
937
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,320
got yelled at.
Like, you know, you're wasting
938
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,120
the air conditioning, you know,
one of those and you just
939
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,800
couldn't breathe.
It was fantastic.
940
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:21,280
No, not, not.
And my parents gave me.
941
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,480
Tylenol so.
You know, that's why I'm here.
942
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Angela's parents, when she was a
kid, smoked.
943
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,000
In the car and she's like, I
just can't believe that I can't
944
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,480
believe they ever smoked.
They've they've been non-smokers
945
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,760
for 40 plus years.
But Dixieland says he had a $50
946
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:38,320
nineteen 70 Chevy Nova with big
tires and two by fours in the
947
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:39,720
leaf spring.
So tires.
948
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,480
I'll bet you it rode like a
dream.
949
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:46,120
I'll bet you absolutely.
All right, here we go.
950
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,840
Do we have any advice for people
moving from a modern cost of I
951
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,080
think it meant moderate cost of
living to a high cost?
952
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,440
Of living city, don't it would
be my advice.
953
00:46:58,720 --> 00:47:00,880
I'm hoping there is a
commensurate.
954
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,840
Adjustment to income coming
along with the additional high
955
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,120
costs, Yeah, I mean the advice
is budget.
956
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:08,600
Well, right.
I mean, you know, kind of know
957
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:10,760
what you're getting into.
I think the part of it you've
958
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,640
already done is knowing that,
you know, you're moving from an
959
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:18,720
area of of lesser that that's
not quite as expensive to a more
960
00:47:18,720 --> 00:47:20,600
expensive area.
So important to know there.
961
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,240
But outside of that, not really
a lot of advice and voided at
962
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:27,760
all cost if you can.
If not, you know, you got to be
963
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,880
frugal where you where you can
and do your best.
964
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:34,000
That's the only advice I got.
All right, Josh, not a lot of
965
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,480
questions here.
Adios, amigo.
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,400
Happy Wednesday welcome to
another week of the educated
2
00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:05,720
home buyer live back on
Wednesday.
3
00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,560
So sorry for all the confusion.
Swipping switching to Tuesday
4
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,720
now back to Wednesday.
We just.
5
00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:12,800
Maybe we'll go Thursday next
week, you see?
6
00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:14,160
Yeah.
Now we're we're back to
7
00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,800
Wednesdays, 5:00.
Going forward, if I can't make
8
00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,000
it or Josh can't make it, then
one of us will just do the show
9
00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:22,640
without the other.
That way there's no confusion on
10
00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:24,960
times and all of that good
stuff.
11
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,040
It's just easier.
This is what you guys know, this
12
00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,960
is what you guys expect, and we
want to keep it consistent so
13
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,560
that you guys are happy and you
know, we're getting your
14
00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:35,880
questions answered moving
forward.
15
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:40,280
So with that guys, welcome back
Josh Wednesday, your favorite
16
00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:41,280
day of the week.
How is it?
17
00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,840
I it was not going great, but
then I heard my song and I was
18
00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:47,520
like, this is a great day.
It's a good day.
19
00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:52,000
It's a great day to be alive.
I look completely like I'm
20
00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,320
washed out here.
I've got the sun.
21
00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,160
Look at this thing.
It looks like the sun.
22
00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,320
I'm thinking that somehow your
light got cranked up is what
23
00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,200
happened.
Dude, I'll turn this light off
24
00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,080
Watch this.
Is it coming right through the
25
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,200
crack in the blind?
No, it's coming through the
26
00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,400
actual blind itself.
That's wild.
27
00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,680
It is pretty wild, but it is
what it is.
28
00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:13,600
So anyway, you guys don't care
about that.
29
00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,080
You care about your questions
and the economy.
30
00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,440
And we are going to talk about
that as we always do.
31
00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,520
We're going to start with some
slides and we're going to answer
32
00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:22,000
your question.
So do us a favor.
33
00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,560
If you're just joining in, make
sure you put your questions in
34
00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,800
the chat so that we can answer
them and help guide you guys
35
00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:32,840
through what has been somewhat
of a, I guess kind of a, a calm
36
00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,480
market, Josh, over the last week
since.
37
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,200
Yeah.
If the government shuts down and
38
00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:37,840
there's no data, everything's
calm.
39
00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,960
It would just.
Be very, very complacent, like
40
00:01:40,960 --> 00:01:43,000
everybody's happy with with just
status quo.
41
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,440
So, but we're going to be
talking about that in a little
42
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,400
bit more detail.
Any, any, any housekeeping
43
00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:50,920
items, Josh?
I feel like there was something
44
00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:52,560
and I don't, I don't remember
what it was, but.
45
00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,480
I was going to say, if we're
going to put up a poll today,
46
00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,840
the poll that I want is do any
of you use the subscribe and
47
00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,440
save on Amazon?
It makes me mad that they offer
48
00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,400
me these discounts but then I
have to deal with their timing,
49
00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,720
which it always seems to either
be too soon or too late that it
50
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,120
arrives.
For it, it, you are correct.
51
00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:14,560
I I do use the subscribe and
save and it does both of those
52
00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,480
arrive late and early.
So I just figured if it arrives
53
00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,200
early enough, then at some point
I'll cancel it and I'll have a
54
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,760
kind of a plethora that I can go
through and then at some point
55
00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,440
we do it again.
But.
56
00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:26,600
You, you can you.
What you need to do is schedule.
57
00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,800
Because I did have like 4 or
five things on it and it just
58
00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:29,920
irritated me.
I cut them off.
59
00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:31,920
You need to set yourself a
little reminder every month to
60
00:02:31,920 --> 00:02:34,400
go and look at what's coming and
either make them come sooner or
61
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:35,960
push them off.
There you go.
62
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,320
Good advice Josh, just like the
housing advice.
63
00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:41,720
Words of wisdom.
Pearls of wisdom, here we go.
64
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,560
So your start.
So tonight's episode is talking
65
00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,840
about 15 states signalling a
little softer housing market.
66
00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,440
So at the moment, there are 15
states back to pre pandemic
67
00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,560
levels, back to where we were in
2019.
68
00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,000
And if you can't read this
chart, understandable.
69
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,000
The words are very, very small.
So what we've done here is taken
70
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,800
those 15 and we've put them up
here on the screen so that you
71
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,320
can take a look at them.
But basically what we're looking
72
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:12,760
at is Tennessee, Texas,
Colorado, Arizona, Washington,
73
00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,320
Florida.
I'm having a really hard time
74
00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,000
reading this thing.
Josh, Utah.
75
00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:23,240
Idaho, Oklahoma, Nevada, Hawaii,
Nebraska, Oregon, Alabama, North
76
00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,200
Carolina and Arkansas.
We call it Oregon.
77
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:26,720
It makes the Oregonians really
mad.
78
00:03:26,920 --> 00:03:29,080
Oh, I love that.
Let's let's we could we do that
79
00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,480
from now on?
That's let's just piss people
80
00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,160
off all over the US.
Josh, no, we don't want to do
81
00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:35,000
that.
It's Oregon.
82
00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,280
But anyhow, so those states are
back to pre pandemic levels.
83
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,080
You know, the the last one what
what Arkansas 0%.
84
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,680
So it's kind of even, but you
know, up at the top, Tennessee,
85
00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,880
Texas, some of these quite a bit
more inventory them, you know,
86
00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,880
in 2019.
So those are gonna be softer
87
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,320
markets, markets probably where
you're seeing more deals happen.
88
00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,880
Buyers have leverage as opposed
to, you know, where we are here
89
00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,320
in Southern California, Josh,
not a lot of leverage for buyers
90
00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,520
at the moment.
Things seem to be selling still
91
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,760
pretty quickly at or above the
asking price.
92
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,560
Still a lot of people sitting on
the fence waiting for the right
93
00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,280
home to come to the market
because quite frankly inventory
94
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,000
is kind of dissipated from, you
know, the highs that we saw,
95
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:15,680
which is normal for this time of
year.
96
00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,640
And with that things are, are
are kind of just naturally
97
00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:20,880
slowing down on the inventory
front.
98
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,960
This is anecdotal, so always
take it for what it's worth when
99
00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,680
we're saying just what we see.
But what I generally find the
100
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,240
buyers that I'm working with are
fairly particular.
101
00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,080
I'm not saying they want a
perfect house, I'm saying that
102
00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,040
they for the most part, and, and
this is been sort of post
103
00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:40,040
pandemic, when money is tighter,
qualifying is tighter, all of
104
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,480
your money is going towards the,
the down payment and not having
105
00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,880
a lot of money to do upgrades
afterwards.
106
00:04:46,280 --> 00:04:49,960
People are wanting the homes
that are upgraded updated that
107
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,760
look a little bit nicer.
So I don't doubt that there are
108
00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,720
homes out there that are sitting
lingering and selling at
109
00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:57,480
discounts.
Or they can say is for the most
110
00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,480
part, the buyers that I'm I'm
dealing with, we've talked about
111
00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,320
before, they're buying homes
that are well below the median
112
00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,960
price in the area, which is
where more demand is right now
113
00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,520
and they're gravitating to the
nicer homes in that price point.
114
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:11,280
So.
Well, like you said, an
115
00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,880
anecdotal right, I mean, $1.2
million in Arkansas, people like
116
00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:16,560
you're crazy.
That's a lot of money and
117
00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,600
probably buys you a lot of house
on a lot of land here in
118
00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,560
Southern California.
It's cookie cutter, it's basic,
119
00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:26,760
it's you know what, not what you
think of as $1,000,000 home for
120
00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,600
most of the country.
So it just, you know, things for
121
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,760
us are a little bit different
than, you know, other parts of
122
00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,640
the country and, and same for
them versus US here.
123
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,960
So just make sure you're
following your local market and
124
00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,720
paying attention.
And there's some cool tools to,
125
00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:43,920
to, to do that, especially now
with some of the, the new data
126
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,280
things that we have, which we
can talk about here in just a
127
00:05:46,280 --> 00:05:49,520
second, but it'll actually be
when we talk about this.
128
00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:53,280
So this is Zillow's heat map of,
of the hottest markets out
129
00:05:53,280 --> 00:05:55,120
there.
And I think they look at what
130
00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,120
the, the, how many 200 top
metros or something, Josh,
131
00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,840
something along those lines.
So your, your purple's going to
132
00:06:01,840 --> 00:06:05,480
be your, your neutral markets
where basically buyers, sellers
133
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:10,840
kind of equal as you start to
get into, you know, a, a reddish
134
00:06:10,840 --> 00:06:12,720
tint, we're going to start with
that peachy color.
135
00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,920
And, and that's kind of a warm
market, whereas, you know, red
136
00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,920
is going to be a hot market and
then the bluers are, are colder
137
00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,680
market.
So you can see just pockets kind
138
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,240
of spread all over the US.
It's not, you know, if you would
139
00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,200
have showed this map in 2021,
the entire damn thing probably
140
00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:33,200
would have been red.
You know, where, where is now
141
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,040
obviously considerably slower
than than it was.
142
00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,560
But again, there are pockets out
there that are still hot.
143
00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,280
So if you're in one of those
markets, if you're in one of
144
00:06:40,280 --> 00:06:43,400
those little squares and you
know, that's your square, then
145
00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,640
you got to pay a little bit more
attention to that data because
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00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,280
it is it's it pertains more to
you.
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00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,040
But with that said, we often
talk about working with real
148
00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,760
estate agents in your market
that understand this data.
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00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,560
There's a link scroll in the
bottom of the screen where if
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00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,400
you want, I'm happy to connect
you with somebody that does
151
00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,760
business like I do.
I've connected probably 50 plus
152
00:07:01,840 --> 00:07:04,680
people this year alone.
A lot of people go under
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00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,520
contract and end up closing.
But the reason I bring this map
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00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,160
up and some of the data up is
Resi Club, the the same company
155
00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,960
who produced this map now let
you go granular on the data.
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00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,560
So if you're in a market and you
know that you're just like
157
00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,120
wondering, hey, what's happening
in my market, we can actually
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00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,560
pull that data up for you.
So, and if we can't, the agent,
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00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,280
you know that we refer you to
we, we can make sure that they
160
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,680
have access to it so they can
pull it up for you as well.
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00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:31,760
So anyhow, thought that was
helpful.
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00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:37,400
Inventory overall more or less
flat 862 to 863.
163
00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,440
I mean more or less 1000 homes
week over week still kind of
164
00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,200
moving flat.
The gap between last year and
165
00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:48,360
this year's can continuing to to
kind of get closer and closer
166
00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:50,080
together.
Smaller and smaller gap now
167
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:54,360
17.66% more inventory than this
time last year.
168
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:58,720
That number will continue to
move lower as we get closer to
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00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,120
the new year, new listings or
actually talking about
170
00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,120
Huntington Beach and Orange
County.
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00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:07,960
So I didn't put the the
percentages on the charts here,
172
00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,560
but Orange County was down
slightly less than a 1% sitting
173
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,240
at 4433 homes.
So basically flat week over week
174
00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,760
for the most part.
Huntington Beach ticked up just
175
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,280
a little bit.
I think it was a couple of
176
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,520
percent, 2% or something.
I think we went from 264 to 270
177
00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:29,080
homes, so six homes, you know,
again, just less than 3% on
178
00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,760
that.
So inventory kind of just
179
00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,360
bouncing back and forth.
We're probably not going to go
180
00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,120
back over those highs that we've
seen this year.
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00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,200
And I would, you know, guess
that that we're going to
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00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,360
continue to see the sideways
downward movement as we head
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00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,680
into the holiday season.
New listings.
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00:08:46,680 --> 00:08:49,640
Again, not going to really get
into too much information here,
185
00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,520
but still up year over year,
weekly pending cells, still up
186
00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:57,720
year over year, price reductions
basically moving sideways here
187
00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,920
at 41.8%.
That spread, Josh, that we
188
00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,160
talked about last week.
So a small uptick.
189
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,000
I don't know what the actual
number is where we like 2.2
190
00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,320
point 2 something right now, 2
point.
191
00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,720
Where are we?
235 somewhere in that range.
192
00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,880
So somewhere in that range and
and chances are probably going
193
00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,240
to continue to see something
like that unless some crazy data
194
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:23,520
comes out which we don't have.
So this is taking a look at the
195
00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,480
markets that have been impacted
the most with regard to the
196
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:32,360
change from the highs that we
saw back in I think it was 2021
197
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,840
or 2022, just where we've come
from that point, you know,
198
00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,280
overall in those markets.
Is this purchase or sale price
199
00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:44,480
Jeb?
This is, you know, I think it's,
200
00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,800
yeah, median price, probably
median sales price is my guess.
201
00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,960
I don't remember 100%, but I
think it is.
202
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:54,200
But Punta Gorda seems to be like
in everything we look at like
203
00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:56,640
the worst market.
But then you get agents on here
204
00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,360
and Punta Gorda say it's not
that bad.
205
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,080
I don't know what's happening.
But you know, if you look at the
206
00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,960
first what, 5 up there, what
four of those five are in
207
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,880
Florida.
So, you know, and, and if you
208
00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:11,560
start going down, it's a lot of
Texas, a lot of Florida, that's
209
00:10:11,560 --> 00:10:13,160
where you see the majority of
those.
210
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,800
But those are also the markets
that solve the biggest gain as
211
00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,440
well.
So even with these downward
212
00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:23,280
moves in prices, those markets
are still up compared to prior
213
00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,200
to the pandemic.
So it's, you know, you hear
214
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:26,960
crashing, you hear all of this
sort of thing.
215
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,560
And it's more of a, hey, listen,
we're giving back some of the
216
00:10:29,560 --> 00:10:32,760
craziness that we had during
that period of time, which was
217
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,240
to be expected.
Josh, this, you know, one of the
218
00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:40,160
things you and I hear a lot is
that, you know, institutional
219
00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,120
investors own everything and
that that's who you're competing
220
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,240
against and it's BlackRock and
all of these things.
221
00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:50,280
And Logan from Housing Wire has
been, you know, you know, smart
222
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,200
to point out that that BlackRock
doesn't actually own any real
223
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,000
estate at all.
They actually own 0 properties,
224
00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,680
but they own entities that do
own some property.
225
00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:01,720
So you're not competing directly
against BlackRock and any of
226
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,920
this stuff.
But this basically just shows
227
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,280
where those markets are located,
where the majority of markets,
228
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:12,120
you know, investors, they own
it, I think at least 100 homes
229
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,360
where their focus is and in, in
this chart.
230
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:17,360
And you know, with regards to
owning the most single family
231
00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,120
homes, Arizona, Maricopa County,
obviously one of those hot
232
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,200
markets where, you know, rental
demand is high, prices were low
233
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,080
for a long period of time.
But you guys can take a look at
234
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,560
that chart just to, to see if
your market's on there.
235
00:11:28,560 --> 00:11:32,160
Because if so, there's, you
know, there's a chance that
236
00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,440
that's who your competition is.
But for the majority of us
237
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,520
watching, that's not our
competition.
238
00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,560
And this is just another look at
that same chart.
239
00:11:40,560 --> 00:11:44,480
Josh, is this did you throw this
one in there or did I throw this
240
00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:45,680
one there?
You you threw it in.
241
00:11:45,680 --> 00:11:48,840
It's yeah, the map is cool
because you see the darker areas
242
00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,200
are where this is.
So if you're in, you know, like
243
00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,640
you said, Maricopa County, if
you're in one of these areas
244
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,480
that's darker there, it is
absolutely going to feel like
245
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,240
they're in the market because
they've been buying more
246
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,680
recently.
So from that perspective, not a
247
00:12:03,680 --> 00:12:06,240
big factor nationally, but
regionally there.
248
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,000
Are if you're in North Dakota or
South Dakota, you're safe.
249
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,160
You're safe.
You have no competition from
250
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,400
institutions.
Most of Montana.
251
00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:16,800
Or Maine, Maine, you have none.
Like, you know, there's very
252
00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,160
little in those markets, but
anyway.
253
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,320
So not a whole lot of data with
the government shutdown.
254
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,760
So wanted to just go back and
look at some things.
255
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,160
So we've talked about this
before.
256
00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,160
Americans aren't moving as much
anymore.
257
00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,800
So in a given year, on the left
side of that chart was 1994.
258
00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,680
So this is over the last 30
years.
259
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:39,040
In a given year, 1617% of
Americans would move.
260
00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,560
That's down to 8%.
That's like half of the movers
261
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,560
of those that move, about half
of them move within the same
262
00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:48,360
county.
And then you look at the numbers
263
00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,800
that are same state, different
county, different state, those
264
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,800
numbers are just way, way down
in terms of of moving.
265
00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:56,960
So mobility impacts a lot of
things.
266
00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,520
It impacts home sales, it
impacts movers, it, it impacts
267
00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:04,960
Home Depot, things of that sort.
So it tells us that you have
268
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,680
some stagnation in the overall
economy and that's sort of a
269
00:13:08,680 --> 00:13:12,320
tailwind that we'll be looking
at until people get more mobile.
270
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,240
Some of this has to do with work
from home and your ability to
271
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,360
stay wherever you are and, and
do a job or find another job
272
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:19,800
without having to relocate to
it.
273
00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,160
But it'll be interesting to see
what that does over the long
274
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:27,240
haul because mobility is overall
positively correlated to the
275
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,560
economy.
Some of this comes down to
276
00:13:29,560 --> 00:13:31,360
interest rate lock in this
chart.
277
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,720
Jeb was was pretty interesting
going back to the early 80s when
278
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,520
rates spiked way, way, way up.
Lock in was much, much worse
279
00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,640
than it is right now.
But lock in is a real thing.
280
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:47,160
So the better part of what from
1984 through 2023, no one was
281
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,400
really locked in, very low lock
in pressure because home prices
282
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,640
hadn't increased that much while
rates were going up.
283
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:56,040
And if we look at that, we are
we're going to look at it here
284
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,320
in the next chart here or the
one after that, you can see we
285
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,800
basically had a 40 year period
of rates going nowhere but down.
286
00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,360
So even though home prices were
going up, interest rates were
287
00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,720
going down.
So moving and mobility was
288
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,960
generally pretty affordable.
What you can see over here on
289
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:13,960
the right side is that the lock
in pressure is easing as rates
290
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,440
have come down a little bit.
But until we get back down to
291
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,440
that blue, it's, it's likely to
see what we talk about here all
292
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,040
the time.
Jeb annual home sales, existing
293
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,960
home sales in that 4 million
range versus the 5 or 6,000,000.
294
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,720
Where do people feel the most
locked in?
295
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,880
Again, the darker here is most
locked into, the lighter is the
296
00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,360
less locked in.
And my theory here with this is
297
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,280
the, the darker states are
generally higher price states.
298
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,760
In those higher priced states,
people are more likely to
299
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,200
refinance.
So if you have $100,000 loan in
300
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,120
Oklahoma and it's at 6% and
rates go to 4%, that's nice, but
301
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:49,560
it's not a, hey, I have to do
this.
302
00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,840
Whereas if you're in San Jose
and you have $1,000,000 home,
303
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,880
you absolutely need to jump on
that and and take advantage,
304
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,680
Josh.
I feel locked in for different
305
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,040
reasons.
I feel locked in to California
306
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,720
because of the weather.
I feel like if the weather was
307
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,760
better in other parts of the
country, I wouldn't care about
308
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:07,920
my rate.
I wouldn't care about any of
309
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,600
that.
I could make the move and figure
310
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:10,280
it out.
But.
311
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,520
If the weather was better in
other parts of the country, your
312
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,840
home would not be worth as much
because people would happily
313
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,200
locate themselves in other parts
of the country.
314
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:19,400
That's fair.
That is fair.
315
00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:24,240
So I like the look at this and
kind of what jumped out at me.
316
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,160
You can see obviously everyone
knows on the right side since
317
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,720
2022, rates have spiked,
subsided a little bit, but still
318
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,000
near that.
But if you see the little Gray
319
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,760
horseshoe there, upside down
field goal posts as rates below
320
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,360
remain below 5%.
During the ZERP era, that zero
321
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,880
interest rate policy where the
government was buying many
322
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:48,400
Treasuries, many mortgage-backed
bonds to stimulate the economy,
323
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,200
and people look at that, well,
they're never going to do that
324
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:51,160
again.
They can't do that.
325
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,800
We have too big a deficit.
So we're never going to see
326
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,480
rates that low.
But if you look well prior to
327
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,320
that, that was a long and
defined downtrend.
328
00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:03,040
Our friend Laci Hunt over at
Hoisington Investment, he's
329
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,840
about due for his quarterly
report, still believes that all
330
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,920
of the underlying trends that
were leading rates lower are
331
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,000
still in place.
So that doesn't mean that
332
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,600
they're going back down to 2 and
3%, but it tells us that that
333
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,680
downtrend may not have seen the
end of its days there.
334
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,240
And there's debate on this.
We have two different camps of
335
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,080
economists out there, one that
thinks the excessive debt from
336
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,240
the government is going to push
rates to the moon, and the other
337
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,360
thinks it's going to slow growth
and push rates down because of
338
00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,000
disinflation.
So we'll see.
339
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,880
We'll see.
We actually got the the the what
340
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,760
the yearly debt today.
It was at 1.9 trillion I
341
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,480
believe.
And they were like, well, it's
342
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,240
basically the same, like
nothing's changed year over
343
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,000
year.
It only improved by 8 billion,
344
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,760
$8 billion, Josh.
It improved by $8 billion and it
345
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,360
that means nothing because.
We're it's a rounding error in
346
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,720
1.9 trillion.
Is that crazy?
347
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,320
Like I was thinking about that.
I'm like $8 billion is a lot of
348
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,440
money and it really means
nothing. 0 anyway.
349
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,400
So government shutdown, but that
doesn't mean our friends at
350
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,119
Trueflation are shut down.
It would be interesting to see
351
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,440
how much of the underlying data
they run the Trueflation numbers
352
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,480
off of our government
statistics.
353
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,280
But anyways, we're up to 2.26
from 2.2 OA week ago.
354
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,839
This is a volatile series.
You can just see just since June
355
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:29,560
here, we've had drops all the
way well under 2% to like 1.85
356
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,720
and then runs up to like the 2.3
range overtime.
357
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,040
This will give us a good
indication and tell us what's
358
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,880
happening with inflation.
It appears to be a choppy
359
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,960
sideways, slightly uptrend, but
time will tell.
360
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,320
What are the futures market
betting on interest rates Still
361
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,120
thinking a 95% chance we're
getting a cut next month and
362
00:17:50,120 --> 00:17:54,080
then an 80% chance at one of the
next two meetings.
363
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,080
So Fed cuts are already there.
We've talked about this a little
364
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,200
bit.
Fed cuts absent A recession or a
365
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,760
recession coming shortly after,
those Fed cuts don't generally
366
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,080
lead to much lower interest
rates.
367
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,280
So we haven't seen rates dip a
whole heck of a lot when we went
368
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,480
from 70 to 95% chance of a cut
at the next meeting.
369
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,680
So we'll, we'll see.
We need, we need the government
370
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,400
to open back up and give us some
data to, to move those lower.
371
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,840
So rates pretty much flat over
the last week, flat over the
372
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,880
last month, definitely about 1/4
percent better over the the last
373
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,920
year.
But rates are at good levels,
374
00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:29,360
not quite as good as we had
after the Fed meeting.
375
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,320
But again, really well qualified
borrowers are getting better
376
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,160
rates than this.
So I mean, to the point IA
377
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,040
listener here, Jeb, we have in
in escrow in Texas that is
378
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,680
probably it was going to go
USDA, but because the government
379
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,280
shutdown is likely not going to
be able to close on time on new
380
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,640
construction and the builder
said, hey, figure it out.
381
00:18:48,120 --> 00:18:50,960
So figuring it out, we just
looked at the FHA and for him
382
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,360
with a very good credit score, 0
points, 5.625 on an FHA.
383
00:18:55,360 --> 00:18:57,960
So take that chart with a grain
of salt, but definitely check
384
00:18:57,960 --> 00:18:59,560
see what we can do.
We can help you with that.
385
00:19:00,120 --> 00:19:02,520
Yeah, and if you want to get in
touch with Josh, the team, that
386
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,360
link, scroll in the bottom
there, Jeb smith.net/start,
387
00:19:05,360 --> 00:19:06,720
we'll get you in touch with
them.
388
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,760
And if you're one of those
people that, you know, you just
389
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:14,040
like to use QR code because
you're watching on your TV,
390
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,200
there's AQR code up there at the
top left that will also get you
391
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,640
to the same spot if you scan it.
So do that.
392
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,680
And while you're doing that, let
us know what questions you have.
393
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:28,640
We're going to dive into them
right now and hopefully educate
394
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,080
some home buyers out there,
Josh.
395
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:35,760
So let's see what we've got.
You know, we don't have a lot of
396
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,160
questions.
We got a lot of comments.
397
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,520
A lot of comments.
We'll go with this one.
398
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:44,000
That's our first question.
Also I think maybe the only one
399
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,240
on everything else's comments,
but miscellaneous of the
400
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,880
whatever says hello.
Does escrow analysis only look
401
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,640
at the current year?
I am getting a refund but the
402
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,200
monthly payment for the upcoming
year is going up.
403
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,560
I'm not complaining, I'm getting
a refund.
404
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:02,280
So Josh, what did they look at
when they're re evaluating every
405
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,760
year?
If it's a small refund and you
406
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,280
haven't bought this home
recently, I wouldn't worry too
407
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,280
much about it.
If it's a very large refund.
408
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,040
I've had clients get excited
about this.
409
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,240
There should never be a very
large refund from your impound
410
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,000
account.
And I've seen people get like
411
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,640
hey I just got $3000 back and
you're like that is not correct.
412
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,800
It was someone who had bought
new construction that the idiot
413
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,400
at the company that does the
impound analysis looked up the
414
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,400
tax rate and it hadn't been
reassessed.
415
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,080
So the builders raw land was
assessed at $2.00 and they paid
416
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,200
$400,000 for the house and we're
going to get their their
417
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,320
assessment and their tax bill
based off of that.
418
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,160
But again, we've got people most
likely out of the country that
419
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,040
have no idea how our property
taxes work that don't know that
420
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,200
that doesn't make sense.
So be very careful if any of
421
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,280
those things apply to you.
But do does it?
422
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:51,600
Do they only look at the current
year?
423
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,000
They look forward at the next
year.
424
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,280
So when they do that analysis,
they're looking at your current
425
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,000
insurance, what's the premium?
They're looking at your current
426
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,720
assessed value and your annual
taxes.
427
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:02,600
And then they look at your
monthly payment.
428
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,120
And then the software looks
forward the next 12 months and
429
00:21:05,120 --> 00:21:08,320
it says, do we ever exceed the
amount that we're allowed to
430
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,280
have in the account?
They're allowed to have a
431
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,120
cushion in there to make sure
that you have enough and there
432
00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:17,080
is a, a maximum amount by law.
And that forward look says, hey,
433
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,720
do we get too much in this
account at any point in the next
434
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,080
12 months?
And if so, they give you a
435
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,760
refund.
If you're short at any point of
436
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,200
the Max cushion that they're
allowed to have, they will say,
437
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,440
hey, you're $500 short.
So we're going to have $42.00 a
438
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,000
month to your payment for the
next year.
439
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,560
Yes they will.
Yes they will.
440
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,080
He also goes.
Hold on, hold on.
441
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,080
He follows up with the bad, bad
news.
442
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:42,400
A $2600 refund on a new build.
Put that money in the bank
443
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,720
because you are exactly what I
told you.
444
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,160
What we just talked about is
exactly what happened to you.
445
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,440
A child or someone outside of
our country did your escrow
446
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,440
impound analysis and they don't
understand that what the
447
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,960
property was assessed at is not
what the property will be
448
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,080
assessed at.
And that assessment will be
449
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,800
coming and it will be
retroactive to when you purchase
450
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,240
that at home in most states in
the country.
451
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,640
So I would reach out to your
servicer and I would ask to talk
452
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,840
to a supervisor and see if
someone can take a closer look
453
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,080
at your analysis and explain to
them that this was a purchase of
454
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,200
new construction and you don't
think this refund is accurate or
455
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,600
you can hold the money because
it is going to go back into that
456
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,920
impound at some point.
There you go.
457
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:28,640
I just I was clicking on another
one from the same viewer there.
458
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,440
She said they do do the yes and
subscribe.
459
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,040
We're talking about Amazon here,
subscribe and save, but their
460
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,240
their prices change monthly.
So it's not always cheaper.
461
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,280
That is something I've
definitely noticed, like when I
462
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,560
go order products again, if you
go into your orders and you
463
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,000
know, you can just buy it again,
I never do that.
464
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,280
I always go and research like
search the product again to
465
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,840
figure out if the price is the
same because that's what I worry
466
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,840
about like, hey, we'll just
change that thing a couple
467
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:52,920
bucks.
I'll never know because of
468
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:54,800
reordering.
I don't know, Josh.
469
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,360
I'm cheap like that, man.
Well, I, I think they do.
470
00:22:57,360 --> 00:22:59,280
They do count on that, that
you're not going to watch it and
471
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,240
look and see what it is.
That's the problem with the
472
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,600
Internet in general and shopping
online.
473
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,240
That's how we do all of our
shopping now.
474
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,240
And they can figure out dynamic
pricing.
475
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,160
They know from your shopping
habits if you're price sensitive
476
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:12,400
or not.
And if you're price sensitive,
477
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,280
you get better offerings than
non price sensitive buyers.
478
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:17,880
You know, I feel like there's a
lawsuit there, Josh.
479
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,400
Orange Pulp, there's a listing
that says the seller's offering
480
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,240
buyer to take over the rate of
1.9%, but only if the buyer
481
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:27,600
qualifies.
Is that legit?
482
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,400
I would think that's probably
legit.
483
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,600
It's probably, I mean it's got
to be an assumable loan.
484
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:39,000
FHA or VA is is my guess.
And it's probably a 15 year loan
485
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,640
to some degree.
If it's at if it's under 2%
486
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,440
would be my guess.
I mean, I know there were some
487
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:47,200
low VA loans done it sometime,
but I don't know if they were
488
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,480
under 2 without some sort of buy
down.
489
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,040
I mean, I have one right now
that is in escrow where I'm
490
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:57,440
representing the seller and it's
the, the buyer is getting 2.75%
491
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,480
on a VA loan with 26 years
remaining on that loan.
492
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,840
And we're going through the
process.
493
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,600
It's it's been a drag a little
bit.
494
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,240
I mean, we're probably 45 days
into this and probably still
495
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,560
have another 45 left at least to
get through it.
496
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,360
But yeah, the buyer has to
qualify.
497
00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:15,600
That's with any mortgage that
you get, so.
498
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,320
I would bet large amounts of
money it's VA.
499
00:24:18,360 --> 00:24:22,040
And the reason being is VA and
FHA rates are very similar.
500
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,360
But on an FHA streamline
refinance, which if you're
501
00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:29,120
refinancing your, your FHA,
there's a maximum mortgage
502
00:24:29,120 --> 00:24:30,800
calculation.
So they can't just say, hey,
503
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,400
here's two 2 1/2 three points,
which the call centers love
504
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,840
having you pay a bunch of points
to get an ultra low interest
505
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,440
rate.
So below two 2% even on the
506
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,200
government stuff, I don't think
we ever got there with 0 points.
507
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:47,000
And most FHA buyers don't have
extra cash sitting around to, to
508
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,480
pay for the buy down.
So I'll bet you it was VA.
509
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,680
So as long as you qualify, it's
it's amazing.
510
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,040
I we you could we should make a
a video about that Jeb of just
511
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,760
quantifying what the difference
in terms of value, like the
512
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,960
difference between 1.9 and to
even 5 1/2 is a monstrous
513
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,360
difference in the value of that
home.
514
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Oh, agreed.
Yeah.
515
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,400
I mean, if they're going to do
that, I mean, I feel like the
516
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,480
the seller can charge somewhat
of a premium on that property in
517
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,600
order to, you know, when selling
it just because, hey, listen,
518
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,640
that this is, you know,
something that you can take
519
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,040
advantage of where nobody else
in the neighborhood probably
520
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,960
can, can compete with that.
But anyway, yeah, kill switch
521
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,400
basically saying, hey, listen, I
I'm sitting on the sidelines.
522
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,200
But if I were able to get that,
then I would, you know, I'd go
523
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,080
after it too.
Yeah.
524
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,720
And that's The thing is the
problem with a lot of the
525
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,240
assumable stuff, and this is
important to point out to, to
526
00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:40,560
orange pulp there is that if
there's equity there, though,
527
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,080
that's, that's this is the
kicker.
528
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,960
Everybody wants to take over the
the low rate, but not everyone
529
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,880
understands that in order to do
that, if there's equity built in
530
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,440
that property, you have to come
up with that difference, right?
531
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:58,040
So let's say for example, you
know, it was a VA loan and for
532
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:02,680
example, they bought it for
$500,000 back in 2020 or 2021.
533
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,280
They've got some equity in that
property at this point.
534
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,040
You know, it's not a lot, but it
might be ten, $15,000 or
535
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,840
something in, in that property.
When order to buy it.
536
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,400
You got to come up with that
difference, right?
537
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,800
On the property that I'm talking
about, we're selling it for one,
538
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,600
just over a million million.
I don't remember what the price
539
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,240
was.
Now 1,000,050 or something like
540
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,800
that is what we sold it for.
And she only owes 540 something
541
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,680
on the on the mortgage.
So the buyer had to come up with
542
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,760
over $500,000 to make it work.
They had it.
543
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,880
So it works, but a lot of people
don't have that.
544
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,600
And that's where these deal, you
know, these deals fall apart
545
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,520
because we're they don't make
sense for for buyers because
546
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:39,520
they don't have that down
payment.
547
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,320
Well, here's the the crazy.
The crazy follow up job is they
548
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,680
actually cut the listing price
by 50% since 2022.
549
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,520
So there's something very
interesting going on with that
550
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,760
property either.
They were on crack in 2022 when
551
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,160
they listed it.
Or they really thought that
552
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,640
there was monstrous value.
In the send me the address.
553
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,480
I'd be interested, like if you
have my e-mail, actually just my
554
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,440
first name.
Yeah, just send it to
555
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,320
info@theeducatedhomebuyer.com,
Josh, and I'll check it out.
556
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,360
I I'd be interested to see it
myself and just kind of do some,
557
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,800
you know, research on it.
I love staying, you know, seeing
558
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,800
things like that.
I like looking at homes across
559
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,320
the country too, just because
it's it's interesting versus
560
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,960
seeing the same thing over and
over here in California.
561
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,320
Willing is asking some loan
questions.
562
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,360
Auto loan questions I think
well, hold on here we.
563
00:27:29,360 --> 00:27:32,360
Got we got, so we, we got some,
some other questions for us
564
00:27:32,360 --> 00:27:34,240
here.
So Cesar says, hey, Josh, just
565
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,480
got my realtor's license.
Any recommendations or tips on
566
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:42,080
what I should look for in a
broker to hang my license?
567
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,280
I think you're the right one to
answer that, Jeb.
568
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,000
And I want to frame it just a
little, little clearer for
569
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,600
Cesar.
If you're going out and looking
570
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,960
for a new broker, I think that's
very different than the new
571
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,080
licensee.
So what would you look for in a
572
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,520
new broker to hang your license
with?
573
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,720
And what would you recommend a a
newly licensed salesperson do?
574
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,680
You know, newly licensed.
Don't get caught up in the shiny
575
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,040
objects that the brokerages tell
you that they have, right?
576
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,640
Every brokerage out there is
going to say that they have all
577
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,840
of this stuff that's going to,
you know, make it efficient and,
578
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,640
and do your basically do your
job for you.
579
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,440
The reality is it's going to
come down to you doing the
580
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,280
prospecting, you know, finding
the clients, doing all of that.
581
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,640
So no brokerage is going to do
that for you for the most part.
582
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,600
With that said, I just took in a
breath, Josh.
583
00:28:32,120 --> 00:28:33,840
I was like choked.
I don't even know what happened,
584
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,760
but what I would be looking for
if I was newly licensed is some
585
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,800
sort of guidance.
Is there a mentor there?
586
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,800
Is there someone to bounce
questions off of?
587
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,640
Is there someone that can help
me write offers, that can walk
588
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,760
me through contracts, that can,
you know, kind of just give me
589
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,080
the basics of what I need to do
or give me some sort of game
590
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,360
plan that I can go out and
follow every single day to
591
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,000
hopefully become successful as a
real estate agent.
592
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,720
What most agents think is, hey,
listen, I'm just going to get my
593
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,560
license and all my friends and
family, they're going to list
594
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,040
their homes with me and then
that's what's going to be my
595
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,080
business.
The reality is everybody knows a
596
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,560
couple of different real estate
agents for the most part, right
597
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,880
here in Orange County.
Most people probably know two or
598
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,120
three real estate agents.
So it's not just knowing an
599
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,440
agent, it's somebody that can
provide value and guide you
600
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,080
through that process.
So, you know, happy to have a
601
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,480
chat with you offline, Caesar,
and give you some more direction
602
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,320
here.
But you know, I, I would, I
603
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,400
don't know that you need to go
with a big brokerage, but I
604
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,720
also, you know, wouldn't,
wouldn't necessarily go with the
605
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,280
mom and pops either.
I would go somewhere and
606
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,600
probably in between.
But you you just need need to
607
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,920
either get on a team or find a
mentor or somebody that can
608
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,080
guide you.
Would be helpful helpful to have
609
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,600
other people around that can you
can learn by osmosis and
610
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,960
experience from them.
All right, willing.
611
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,480
Do you frown on auto loans, Josh
on the smaller side, I would
612
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:56,400
like to what I would like to.
Live live his whole life with
613
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,160
that one.
So are we talking about so
614
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,320
willing is in the mortgage
business for those of you that
615
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,520
don't know are you talking about
as a loan officer seeing auto
616
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,560
loans or me personally with auto
loans?
617
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,680
I've had auto loans.
I attempt to pay them off as
618
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,120
quickly as possible.
I don't personally like one for
619
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,400
borrowers.
It really is it in does does it
620
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,640
make sense in the context of
their income, in their financial
621
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,080
life?
I see people regularly that have
622
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,320
autos that make no sense in the
amount of money they make, the
623
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:27,960
amount of savings that they
have.
624
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,640
So from that perspective, I
don't have a problem with
625
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,840
someone having an auto loan, but
just make sure that it it makes
626
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,760
sense and it's not keeping you
from from meeting your goals.
627
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,240
Like Jeb knows.
I, I look at new trucks all the
628
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,480
time and I look at it and I go,
OK, here's what it's going to
629
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,600
cost me for the next 24 months
or 36 months to get that thing
630
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,600
paid off.
And I prefer my old 2017 truck.
631
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,600
You know, I don't disagree with
that.
632
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,360
That's it's nice not having car
payments, that's for sure.
633
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,400
Platinum black.
How often do those assumable VA
634
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,320
loans fall through?
Still have my eye on a place
635
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,120
that went back under contract
two months ago.
636
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,600
So I, you know, I would, I don't
have any real data to provide
637
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,760
here.
I would think most people going
638
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,280
into the assumable loan process,
the only reason it falls apart
639
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,400
is if the buyer ends up changing
their mind for some reason.
640
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,040
I would say more often than not,
those people are going to
641
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,040
qualify, right?
Like for the one that I had,
642
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,880
they were qualifying, they had
$500,000 down and they qualified
643
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,800
for over $1,000,000 loan at
current interest rates.
644
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,280
So there's no world in which
they wouldn't qualify at a 2.75%
645
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,880
interest rate.
So in that case, you know, I, I
646
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,680
think the, the, the probability
that falling through is pretty
647
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,720
low.
But I mean, does it happen?
648
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,640
I'm sure it does.
I just too, too difficult to
649
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,480
say.
I mean, most agents out there
650
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,560
are vetting, you know, the
clients just so they're not
651
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,840
wasting 6090 days with somebody
that's not going to to actually,
652
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,480
you know, close the deal.
And what I would say if we're
653
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,400
looking at it going, hey, it's
been under contract for two
654
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,560
months.
Is something going wrong with an
655
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,200
assumption you would expect two
to four months?
656
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,600
Like 2 months would be faster
for it to get done.
657
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:12,040
All right, let's see here.
Sylvia says if I am looking for
658
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,880
some passive income, can I
convert my garage to a studio
659
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,640
rented out in California?
Is it a straightforward process
660
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,840
forward?
Process forward Josh I like Ford
661
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,480
and Ford are the same word to
me, like the truck and.
662
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,480
Forward.
Straightforward.
663
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,160
Are the same word.
So I just you know, so if you
664
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,880
ever heard me say Ford and
you're like he's a truck.
665
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,320
No, I'm talking about moving
forward.
666
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:41,480
But anyway, can you do that?
You know, you still need to get
667
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,640
it approved through the city.
You can't just convert your I
668
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,280
mean, you can, but not legal,
right?
669
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:53,520
The state of California says
that you can do conversions to
670
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,600
garages and, and Addy Adu and
that sort of thing.
671
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:58,680
But different cities have
different codes.
672
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,160
Here in Huntington Beach is not
as straightforward as that,
673
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,200
right?
There are definitely different
674
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,240
regulations and restrictions and
it's, you know, if there's an
675
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,160
HOA there, you know, could be
issues there.
676
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,040
So is it, it's not
straightforward like you're
677
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,600
asking, is it doable?
It is in most cases.
678
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,440
It's just, you know, check with
the city and see what the what
679
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,680
the process is.
I saw another question here.
680
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,440
Josh Grace says, do you
recommend investor friendly
681
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,240
Realtors around the country?
I'm not sure I understand the
682
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,760
question.
So if the question is, are
683
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,080
you're looking to buy an
investment property and you're
684
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,160
trying to find an area of the
country to put that, do I know
685
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,400
of any Realtors that do that
sort of thing?
686
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,040
The answer is yes.
Outside of that, I think I would
687
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,360
need more clarification on what
the the question is and I can I
688
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,720
can help guide you through
through the the answer there.
689
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:56,360
James, I am under contract with
a seller that has their new
690
00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,200
perspective home contingent upon
the sell of the current primary
691
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:04,520
residence they are selling to me
as a buyer, anything I should be
692
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:09,800
concerned about?
I mean the, the, the downside is
693
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:14,800
you if the seller doesn't find
the replacement property, right?
694
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:18,360
So you're you're contingent,
your purchase is contingent on
695
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,639
them finding a home.
I think I think he's saying that
696
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:25,239
their purchase is contingent
upon his closing.
697
00:34:25,639 --> 00:34:28,280
Oh, no, which is totally normal,
yeah.
698
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,719
I mean, nothing to be concerned
with on that, that front, right?
699
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,360
I mean, you have to close and
then and the seller can close on
700
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,280
their house that that would be
the process.
701
00:34:36,199 --> 00:34:40,040
Anything to be concerned with
timelines perhaps, right.
702
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,560
You know, the seller's going to
need, if they need the proceeds
703
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:47,360
from the sell of their home
because of your closing, they're
704
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:51,760
going to need, you know, if you,
if you close on say Monday,
705
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,440
they're probably going to need a
couple of extra days for that
706
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,160
money to make it into escrow or
title or whatever.
707
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:01,760
Get wired out to the the other
escrow title company in order
708
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,840
for that one to close and then
to be able to move out.
709
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,360
So you just need to be able to
fill that gap with a couple of
710
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,320
days.
That's really the only concern.
711
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,080
Outside of that, nothing that I
can can really think of.
712
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,720
But if you have additional
questions, just drop it in there
713
00:35:13,720 --> 00:35:18,200
and we'll answer them.
Let's see.
714
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,960
They want to stay in the home
three days after closing.
715
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,720
Completely normal that that
would be that they would need to
716
00:35:24,720 --> 00:35:26,840
for the most part.
In fact, I have one right now
717
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,160
where we're selling their
property, they're buying new
718
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,840
construction and they need the
proceeds from this to, to to
719
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,200
close that property.
Can it happen in the same day?
720
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:40,440
It can it just you need some
sort of buffer there just in
721
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,800
case, right?
Because depending on the area,
722
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,160
the county, whatever, like here
in Orange County where we're
723
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,240
located, when a loan funds, it
can actually record that same
724
00:35:49,240 --> 00:35:53,640
day and the buyer can get keys
that day in LA County, which is,
725
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,000
you know, depending on where you
are in LA County.
726
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,080
I mean, you can go 15 minutes
down the road and be in LA
727
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,560
County.
And if it funds on, you know,
728
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,720
today, it can't record until
tomorrow.
729
00:36:03,720 --> 00:36:06,200
So that that delay needs to be
factored in there.
730
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,640
So I, I wouldn't be concerned
with, with the request.
731
00:36:10,240 --> 00:36:17,000
All right, Josh, do mortgage
lenders switch or get recruited
732
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,440
to other companies often like
real estate agents?
733
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,480
Pretty similar.
It's more common.
734
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,040
We've talked about the different
types of lenders, whether you're
735
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,720
a broker, direct lender.
If you're direct lender, do you
736
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:30,760
work for a bank or do you work
for an independent mortgage
737
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,480
bank?
In that independent mortgage
738
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:37,160
bank world, they love recruiting
top producing lenders from other
739
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,280
firms and even going so far as
to give giant signing bonuses
740
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,520
that generally lead to a higher
rates and fees with those
741
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,720
lenders.
And then also unhappy loan
742
00:36:47,720 --> 00:36:50,560
officers being stuck with a
contract where they have to kind
743
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:55,400
of earn out that signing bonus.
I'm talking 102 hundred $300,000
744
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,800
signing bonuses, which basically
it's a, it's a projection on,
745
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,240
hey, the last three years you've
done this much production.
746
00:37:01,240 --> 00:37:03,360
If you bring that over here,
it's worth this much to us.
747
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,640
We'll give you that check
upfront.
748
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,880
So I don't think they're, I
don't think they're all that
749
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:08,840
different.
What do you think, Jim?
750
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,120
No, I see it happen.
You know, some of the, some of
751
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,600
the bigger, you know, names
teams out there that are, that
752
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,080
are working with banks, often
times will will make a move from
753
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,360
one bank to to another.
Like I, you know, some other
754
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,360
blenders that that I use on
occasion that are friends of
755
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:27,840
mine.
I mean, they've been at Wells
756
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:32,560
Fargo, Bank of America, U.S.
bank just moved a new American
757
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,240
funding.
I mean, they're, they're moving
758
00:37:34,240 --> 00:37:38,680
around all of these different
places because my guess is it's,
759
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:43,200
it's, you know, some sort of
incentive for for them and
760
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:44,720
potentially, you know, their
clients.
761
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:47,840
There's maybe some sort of bonus
there in incentive wise to be
762
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,480
able to to do that and upfront
money.
763
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,400
A lot of times, like Josh said,
there's some sort of payday for,
764
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,960
for bringing business over and,
and staying with the company,
765
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,720
but there's usually some sort of
contract as well, which
766
00:37:59,720 --> 00:38:02,120
basically means that you got to
stay here, you know, extra
767
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:03,720
amount of time.
Yeah, you're trapped.
768
00:38:03,720 --> 00:38:06,640
I've been there on, on the on
the real estate side and it's,
769
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,840
it's nice upfront, but it, you
know, when you want to make that
770
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:15,000
move, it kind of sucks.
Anyhow, what do we got, Mr.
771
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,640
Lewis?
We're we're light on questions.
772
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:20,520
You guys don't.
We've answered all the questions
773
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,920
over the last five years.
Should we play the song again?
774
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,360
We can play the song again that
you can ask questions about the
775
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:29,520
writing of the song, how long
Jeb slaved over the lyrics, the
776
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,400
the performer, the the, the
celebrity performer that we have
777
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,640
singing the song.
I mean, if you can guess, we can
778
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:39,560
give you a a bonus for that.
You know, I I I felt like so I I
779
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,760
saw something today.
It's like one of the AI bands.
780
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,040
It's like trending at the top of
Spotify.
781
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,320
It's like velvet, the velvet
ropes or the velvet something
782
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,880
like people had no idea that
this was AII don't even.
783
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,320
I don't know that I've ever
heard them, but.
784
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,120
It's it's a scam all the way
around it.
785
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,600
They're they have bots that are
going and listening to it.
786
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,920
So then it works its way up the
charts and then other people go,
787
00:38:59,920 --> 00:39:01,120
well, other people are listening
to this.
788
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,680
Let me listen to it.
Spotify can throw it in other
789
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,480
people's playlists because if
you look at it, everything about
790
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:11,560
you can't tell from hearing it,
but if you if you look at all of
791
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,680
their images like those are not.
Real people, when you go watch
792
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,640
them in concert, you.
Can watch them in concert.
793
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,000
You're really clear.
Those are not humans.
794
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,360
There's like, there's no one up
there too funny.
795
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,200
It's like Milli Vanilli.
Josh, do we do?
796
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,920
Do you in the audience know who
Milli Vanilli is?
797
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,080
That's what I want to know.
Not do you know who did you
798
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,680
listen to?
Blame it on the rain in Was it
799
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,480
90s or was that the 80s, Josh?
That was the late 80s, like 89 I
800
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,840
believe.
And here's the thing, everyone
801
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,360
likes to bust on Milli Vanilli
because they were not real.
802
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:43,840
They were real.
They were.
803
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,440
Real people, if you had your
Nissan truck in 1989, you were
804
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,400
bombing, blaming on the rain,
cruising around with your 18
805
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,120
inch woofers.
Like, let's just be realistic
806
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,240
about it.
Yeah, JBLS just in the back,
807
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,840
just making the truck rattle.
Yeah, I didn't.
808
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,600
I didn't have a car in.
I, I, I had some, some 18 inch
809
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:03,600
Rockfords in the back just
pounding.
810
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,240
My dad would come out and yell
and turn that off.
811
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:09,120
I'm like, you can't hear it.
And then now being an adult and
812
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,120
knowing like you could hear it
from like 5 miles away.
813
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,680
So while I was trying to tell my
dad.
814
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:14,240
He couldn't hear it.
I don't know.
815
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,800
Too funny.
All right, let's see.
816
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,000
Orange Pulp wants to know if he
should post that listing and you
817
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,560
can pull it up and we can live
live stream it and.
818
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,600
Yeah, let's do it.
Let's do it, throw it in there.
819
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,040
Orange pulp, we got no
questions.
820
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,920
So we're going to do a a live
breakdown of a 50% price cut on
821
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,600
a on a home.
And we're going to try to tell
822
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,200
you what we think about it.
There we go.
823
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,320
Let's let's give me the address.
We're going to pull this thing
824
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:41,680
up.
We're just going to use Zillow.
825
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:48,160
Make it easy, all right, waiting
on you.
826
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:49,920
We didn't.
We didn't tell him fast enough.
827
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:51,200
They've gone down something
else.
828
00:40:51,240 --> 00:40:52,800
Good.
He's he's still here.
829
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,000
She, he.
I don't know.
830
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,960
Or they call them.
What?
831
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:02,200
What are we thinking?
Willing do not buy a Jeep junk.
832
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,960
I own one major electric, you
know.
833
00:41:06,240 --> 00:41:15,360
There you go.
Well, Josh, it's really quiet
834
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:16,840
here.
We don't have a lot going on
835
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:17,880
this evening.
What are we doing?
836
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,000
Patrick still has his car from
89.
837
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,040
Oh I had an 89 Honda Accord that
was my first car.
838
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,640
An 89 accord.
My first that was in that was in
839
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,720
96.
Mine was an 89 Toyota pickup in
840
00:41:32,720 --> 00:41:35,800
90.
Oh, so you had like a new car?
841
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,480
It was it had 3000 miles on it.
Someone bought it and was over
842
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,400
their skis and my mom bought it
for them for significantly less.
843
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,680
My mom liked to to do things
like that.
844
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,440
Well, it's smart.
You know, I had a the Honda
845
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,080
Accord, I think mine probably
already had like 100,000 miles
846
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,320
on it in like 6 years of
whatever before I owned it and
847
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,360
I'm pretty sure that thing's
still running.
848
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:03,840
My my 2500 miles on it when I
got it and I had like 129 on it
849
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:08,360
when I sold it.
So Patrick's was a Beretta the
850
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,040
old.
Beretta, look at that thing.
851
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,080
And Willing comes back and says
that Gwen wants a Wrangler or a
852
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,840
gladiator.
No one wants a gladiator.
853
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,760
There's no one on the planet
that wants a gladiator, so let's
854
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,480
just say that.
All right.
855
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:21,480
So we don't have a lot of
questions.
856
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:26,560
We're going to go with Sylvia.
Has the market slowed at all now
857
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,480
that we're heading into the
holiday season?
858
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,160
So I think there are definitely
markets out there that have
859
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:32,880
slowed down.
You know, I was talking to
860
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,040
somebody today, I went to a
conference earlier talking to
861
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:40,280
some other real estate agents.
And I would say like May through
862
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:45,640
early August, the market had
kind of shifted not into a full
863
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,320
buyers market, but more so into
a buyers market than we've seen
864
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,160
in a long time.
And a lot of markets out there
865
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,880
now, some markets are still hot
as you saw from that heat map
866
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,040
earlier.
But once rates started to come
867
00:42:55,040 --> 00:43:00,000
down, got below 6 1/2 percent,
moved closer to 6%, I saw
868
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,200
activity pick up.
I had a couple listings on the
869
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,560
market that all of a sudden they
had been sitting.
870
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:06,560
All of a sudden everything went
under contract.
871
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,440
And now I'm writing offers and
they're multiple offer
872
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,160
situations and things are
selling above the asking price.
873
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,720
So has it slowed?
I think it has in some some
874
00:43:15,720 --> 00:43:17,640
markets.
It's just kind of continuing,
875
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,080
you know, not where it was a
couple years ago, but it's
876
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:22,600
there's definitely activity out
there.
877
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,200
I mean, you, you see pending
contracts are up.
878
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:29,440
You see, you know that, you
know, buyer demand is still out
879
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,720
there.
Mortgage, mortgage applications
880
00:43:32,720 --> 00:43:34,240
jumped as soon as rates came
down.
881
00:43:34,240 --> 00:43:37,080
So there's people on the fence
just waiting just about the
882
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,000
right property.
So when the right one comes out,
883
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,840
you know, or comes up rather you
get, you get people willing to
884
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:43,240
pick offers, make offers on
them.
885
00:43:43,240 --> 00:43:47,280
So just it's local, pay
attention to your market.
886
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,520
Josh Orange Pulp just ditched
us.
887
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,600
They went they went and found
ATV show or a.
888
00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:56,560
Kind of excited and left.
Not much of a baseball guy,
889
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,960
Josh, but baseball playoffs are
good.
890
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,160
Not a Yankees fan, not a Blue
Jays fan.
891
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,480
Great game last night.
I don't, I don't pay attention
892
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,400
until we at least get to the
change.
893
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,400
I mean a little too early for
me.
894
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,080
Good game, really good game.
I enjoyed watching it.
895
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,720
This is the only time I enjoy
watching baseball anyhow.
896
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,120
That's, you know, that's what
we're talking about now, because
897
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,320
that's where we are in the show
anyhow, up and cut it.
898
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,000
Is that what we're doing?
I think so.
899
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,400
We got, we got no more
questions.
900
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,600
Angel Eyes did say they have a
64 Riviera as the first vehicle.
901
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:35,320
I like that Toyota Camry 2005.
Toyota Camry with 184,000 miles.
902
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,920
I like it.
Are we going to dress up for
903
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,320
Halloween Josh, my dog is going
to dress up as a skunk for?
904
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:43,680
Halloween.
Does that count?
905
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,240
No.
Are you going to show up on?
906
00:44:46,240 --> 00:44:50,000
Wednesday the 29th dressed as a
skunk as well dressed.
907
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:54,640
As a skunk.
I will probably not Is. 29th you
908
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,040
can't, you can't dress up.
Don't be the weirdo that you had
909
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,840
a party like 2 days before
Halloween and you people already
910
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:04,000
having Halloween parties now.
Yeah, no, you dress up on.
911
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:05,640
Halloween or you don't dress up
at all.
912
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,040
All right.
Well, guys, not a.
913
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,640
Lot of stuff here, so I'm just
going to promote the show.
914
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,440
If you don't listen to the
Educated Home Buyer podcast, you
915
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:16,000
should.
If you haven't rated and
916
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:20,120
reviewed it, you should.
If you haven't subscribed, you
917
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,840
should.
And here on my channel, if
918
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,120
you're not subscribed, I
understand why.
919
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:26,640
I mean, we do this sort of
podcast.
920
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,520
Why would you?
Why would you even be a part of
921
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,120
this?
I mean, who would want to listen
922
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:34,600
to this sort of thing?
But we appreciate you and we
923
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:36,280
appreciate you showing up.
If you want to get in touch with
924
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,200
Josh, there's a link on the
bottom of the screen.
925
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,600
What do we got here?
Platinum Black has a He's got
926
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,160
his deceased grandpa's 90s.
Thunderbird.
927
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,360
It smelled like an ash tray on
wheels.
928
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,000
Yeah, we.
Found.
929
00:45:50,240 --> 00:45:53,200
We found our audience's passion.
Here they want to talk about
930
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:55,160
their the cars of their youth.
We should.
931
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,320
What we should do is have them
all send in pictures and we can
932
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,160
just do it like a carousel and
show everyone's pictures.
933
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,400
I'm down for that.
I think that I would get behind.
934
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:07,320
That, yeah, I like, I was hot
boxed in the car as a kid.
935
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,080
Like, dad would smoke in there.
It wasn't allowed to roll down
936
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:11,560
the windows.
If I'd roll down the windows,
937
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,320
got yelled at.
Like, you know, you're wasting
938
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,120
the air conditioning, you know,
one of those and you just
939
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,800
couldn't breathe.
It was fantastic.
940
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:21,280
No, not, not.
And my parents gave me.
941
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,480
Tylenol so.
You know, that's why I'm here.
942
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Angela's parents, when she was a
kid, smoked.
943
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,000
In the car and she's like, I
just can't believe that I can't
944
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,480
believe they ever smoked.
They've they've been non-smokers
945
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,760
for 40 plus years.
But Dixieland says he had a $50
946
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:38,320
nineteen 70 Chevy Nova with big
tires and two by fours in the
947
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:39,720
leaf spring.
So tires.
948
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,480
I'll bet you it rode like a
dream.
949
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:46,120
I'll bet you absolutely.
All right, here we go.
950
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,840
Do we have any advice for people
moving from a modern cost of I
951
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,080
think it meant moderate cost of
living to a high cost?
952
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,440
Of living city, don't it would
be my advice.
953
00:46:58,720 --> 00:47:00,880
I'm hoping there is a
commensurate.
954
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,840
Adjustment to income coming
along with the additional high
955
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,120
costs, Yeah, I mean the advice
is budget.
956
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:08,600
Well, right.
I mean, you know, kind of know
957
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:10,760
what you're getting into.
I think the part of it you've
958
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,640
already done is knowing that,
you know, you're moving from an
959
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:18,720
area of of lesser that that's
not quite as expensive to a more
960
00:47:18,720 --> 00:47:20,600
expensive area.
So important to know there.
961
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,240
But outside of that, not really
a lot of advice and voided at
962
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:27,760
all cost if you can.
If not, you know, you got to be
963
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,880
frugal where you where you can
and do your best.
964
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:34,000
That's the only advice I got.
All right, Josh, not a lot of
965
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,480
questions here.
Adios, amigo.








