Watch the episode: 2026 Housing Market Forecast

Here’s the full breakdown that this article is based on. If you like the video, hit the thumbs up and subscribe—those signals help us keep producing data-driven content without the clickbait.

Why 2026 feels different than 2024–2025

The housing market of 2026 is likely to look different than 2025, 2024, and the years immediately after the pandemic. The biggest reason isn’t a magic headline or one single data point. It’s that the market is gradually stepping away from the “whipsaw years” and drifting back toward something that looks more seasonal and cyclical—what most people would call “normal.” :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}

If you weren’t shopping for a home before 2020, it’s easy to assume that what you’ve experienced the past few years is what real estate always is: chaotic bidding wars, super-low inventory, rate shocks, and constant doom-and-gloom predictions.

Real estate is driven by supply and demand. That’s the game. Everything else is noise. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}

In 2026, we expect more of the market to behave like a market again:

• More options for buyers (not unlimited, but more than the last few years).
• More seasonality—spring busier, summer competitive, fall selective, winter slower.
• More negotiation—not every property is a feeding frenzy, especially as price points rise.
• More “normal” decision-making—less panic timing and more planning.

That’s why, in the episode, the theme keeps coming back to a simple idea: everything leads back to affordability. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}

Orange County & Huntington Beach context (why “national” headlines mislead)

If you live in Orange County, you’ve already learned this the hard way: national housing headlines rarely describe your reality. A “balanced market” in one region can still feel brutally competitive in coastal Southern California.

Here’s the local truth: Huntington Beach and much of Orange County are structurally supply-constrained. We don’t have endless land to build. New construction exists, but it’s not going to flood the market the way it can in sprawling metros. So when you hear “inventory is exploding,” the right question isn’t “Is inventory up?” It’s: Up compared to what? And: Up where?

Even in the transcript, the conversation reinforces the idea that real estate is local and the same months-of-supply number can mean wildly different things depending on where you are and what price band you’re shopping in. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}

In Orange County, price point matters more than almost anything

A home near (or below) the median price in a desirable school zone will behave differently than a high-end home that requires a specific type of buyer. That’s not opinion—that’s demand mechanics. When affordability tightens, higher price tiers see slower absorption first.

• Entry level: often competitive, especially if move-in ready.
• Mid-market: competitive when priced right; negotiable when overpriced.
• Upper tiers: more sensitive to rates, stock market sentiment, and “want vs. need” moves.

This is why “months of supply” and absorption matter more than flashy inventory headlines.

2026 inventory forecast: supply, absorption, and months of supply

Inventory is the first pillar of the forecast because supply is one half of the supply-and-demand equation. Coming out of the pandemic, inventory was historically low, demand was pulled forward, and prices surged. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}

What happened in 2025 (quick fact check)

In the episode, the team reviews that inventory increased more than expected—peaking in the low 20% range year-over-year at some points, and sitting around ~15% higher than the prior year when measured later. :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}

Importantly, a key driver wasn’t a sudden flood of listings. It was slower absorption—homes taking longer to sell—especially when rates were higher. :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}

Months of supply: the metric most buyers ignore (and shouldn’t)

A common rule of thumb is that six months of supply indicates a balanced market. In the transcript, nationwide supply was discussed around ~4.4 months—but with the critical reminder that national numbers hide local realities. :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}

Here’s how to think about months of supply if you’re buying in Huntington Beach or Orange County:

• It’s not just “how many homes are listed.” It’s how quickly buyers are absorbing them.
• Rates influence absorption—when rates drop, demand increases, and supply can feel tighter fast.
• Price band matters—closer to the median, the market tends to be more competitive. :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}

The 2026 inventory outlook

The expectation for 2026: inventory continues to pick up because affordability improves, rates average lower than recent years, and more sellers decide to “bite the bullet” for lifestyle reasons. :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}

That last piece is huge. Many homeowners have ultra-low rates and don’t want to give them up. But life keeps happening:

• Growing families needing more space
• Downsizers wanting to simplify
• Job changes
• Divorce or family transitions
• Moving closer to support systems

The forecast isn’t “a flood of listings.” It’s a gradual increase in willingness to move as affordability improves—plus inventory normalization over time. :contentReference[oaicite:11]{index=11}

Buyer demand in 2026: who comes off the fence and why

Demand is the second pillar, and it’s where most people oversimplify. Buyers aren’t “gone.” They’re waiting—often because affordability feels tight. The episode frames affordability as a three-variable equation: home prices can come down, wages can rise, and interest rates can fall—but the variable that moves most in the short term is mortgage rates. :contentReference[oaicite:12]{index=12}

What “better affordability” actually means in 2026

Better affordability doesn’t necessarily mean “cheap houses.” It can mean:

• Rates drifting down enough to improve payments
• More inventory giving buyers options (and leverage)
• Less panic competition in some segments
• More sellers open to concessions or repairs

In the episode, the expectation is that improved affordability brings more buyers off the fence and increases competition—but not to “pandemic crazy” levels. :contentReference[oaicite:13]{index=13}

Huntington Beach / OC demand reality

Orange County has demand drivers that don’t show up in national models:

• Coastal lifestyle premiums (HB, Sunset Beach, Seal Beach adjacent areas)
• School district demand pockets
• High-income dual-earner households
• Long-term owner equity reducing forced sales
• Limited land for meaningful new supply

So yes, more buyers may come off the fence if rates cooperate. But if you’re shopping in a desirable OC micro-market, you should still expect competition for the best homes.

Home sales forecast for 2026

Home sales volume is a practical measure of demand and market health—even though it’s not a perfect measure (inventory constraints can cap sales volume even when demand exists).

Where we’ve been: “spectacularly low” sales by per-capita standards

The episode notes that we’ve been coming off very low sales volumes—levels that are especially low when you adjust for population growth. :contentReference[oaicite:14]{index=14}

In the transcript, “normal” sales volume was loosely referenced around ~5 million existing home sales (ballpark), while the last couple of years have been nearer the ~4 million range. :contentReference[oaicite:15]{index=15}

The 2026 projection: improvement, not a full return to “normal”

For 2026, the expectation is a meaningful improvement in sales volume—driven by improved affordability and more options—while still falling short of a full return to 2019-style volumes. In the transcript, projections discussed range around the mid-4 million range (for example, ~4.4 and up) as a “good return” from recent lows. :contentReference[oaicite:16]{index=16}

The part that matters for Huntington Beach and Orange County: if sales volume improves, you’ll likely see more move-up activity—because more people will feel comfortable listing when they believe they can also buy.

Mortgage interest rate outlook for 2026

Mortgage rates are the biggest short-term lever in housing because they directly impact monthly payment—and that impacts affordability. The episode repeatedly warns against trying to time the bottom in rates. When affordability works for you, you lock. :contentReference[oaicite:17]{index=17}

What “normal volatility” looks like

The transcript discusses a “normal” annual range in rates historically around ~1.4% from high-to-low in a year, and notes that some recent periods were less volatile than “normal,” even if they felt volatile in the moment. :contentReference[oaicite:18]{index=18}

2026 rate range expectations

The episode provides a practical range: think in terms of a band rather than one perfect number. The expectation discussed is that many forecasts point to averages above 6% for the year, with a reasonable range around 5.75% to 6.75%, and a tilt toward the lower end of the 6% range for much of the year. :contentReference[oaicite:19]{index=19}

There’s also acknowledgment that rates could touch the high 5s at points, and could also pop above 6.5% depending on data and volatility. :contentReference[oaicite:20]{index=20}

Don’t wait for “perfect.” Prepare for “workable.”

The transcript emphasizes you can’t time the market, and the goal of a forecast is not perfection—it’s identifying potential landmines and making sure you’re prepared. :contentReference[oaicite:21]{index=21}

In practical terms: if you’re an OC buyer, your edge isn’t predicting the exact weekly rate move. Your edge is knowing your numbers, improving your credit, understanding loan options, and being ready to act when the right home shows up.

Home price forecast: appreciation, stabilization, and “normalizing”

Home prices are what everyone wants to talk about, but prices are downstream from supply, demand, and rates. In the episode, the discussion around price changes emphasizes that we’re moving toward more “normal times,” where not every market behaves the same way. :contentReference[oaicite:22]{index=22}

What happened recently (fact check)

The transcript references multiple measures of annual appreciation: one around ~2%, others around ~1–2%, and notes that the low end of projections was fairly accurate depending on the index (NAR, FHFA, CoreLogic). :contentReference[oaicite:23]{index=23}

What to expect in 2026: mixed results by market

A normalized market means something important that most buyers aren’t used to: some markets can be negative year-over-year while others are positive. :contentReference[oaicite:24]{index=24}

In Orange County, especially in Huntington Beach, it’s common to see:

• Stronger resilience in desirable coastal pockets
• More sensitivity in areas with heavy investor concentration or oversupply
• More separation between “A” homes (turn-key, priced right) and everything else

Translation: in 2026, your results will be more dependent on the specific home and micro-neighborhood than on national averages.

A 2026 playbook for Huntington Beach & Orange County buyers

If you want to be successful in Orange County, your strategy can’t be generic. This market rewards preparation and punishes hesitation. Here’s the playbook I’d want you using in 2026—built around what the forecast suggests: slightly better affordability, more inventory options, and rates that are still volatile but potentially lower on average. :contentReference[oaicite:25]{index=25}

1) Treat “forecasting” like risk management, not fortune-telling

The whole point of a market outlook is to ask: “Are there any major landmines on the path?” If the answer is “fewer landmines than the last few years,” that doesn’t mean “easy.” It means you can move with more confidence if the timing is right for your life. :contentReference[oaicite:26]{index=26}

2) Buy when it’s the right time in your life (not when TikTok says so)

The transcript is blunt: the “right time” is personal. Life stability matters—relationship stability, job stability, financial stability, and being prepared for the true cost of ownership. :contentReference[oaicite:27]{index=27}

Ask yourself:

• Am I likely to stay in Orange County for 3–7+ years?
• Is my income stable and trending upward?
• Do I have cash reserves after down payment and closing costs?
• Do I understand my monthly payment comfort zone before I tour homes?

3) Credit is a superpower in a 6%+ rate world

Credit impacts everything—especially your interest rate and pricing. The episode notes we don’t talk about credit enough, but we should. :contentReference[oaicite:28]{index=28}

If you’re buying in Orange County where payments are high, even small pricing differences matter. Your credit score can be the difference between:

• Qualifying vs. not qualifying
• Winning vs. losing a bidding situation
• Having flexibility vs. being locked into a narrow box

4) Don’t confuse “more inventory” with “no competition”

If rates improve and buyers return, competition can reappear quickly—especially for well-located, well-presented homes. The forecast expects more demand if rates move down and affordability improves. :contentReference[oaicite:29]{index=29}

In Huntington Beach, the homes that usually draw immediate attention are:

• Move-in ready properties priced correctly
• Homes close to the beach, parks, and strong school pockets
• Homes with functional layouts (even more important than cosmetic upgrades)
• Condos/townhomes with reasonable HOA structures (when available)

5) Keep your strategy simple (no “crazy things”)

The transcript notes that the most successful buyers in recent years were the ones who didn’t do “crazy things.” The message: don’t overcomplicate your plan with gimmicks that can backfire. :contentReference[oaicite:30]{index=30}

The right move is usually the clean move:

• Strong pre-approval
• Clear payment comfort zone
• Reserves
• Simple offer structure
• Fast and professional execution

Should you buy in spring, summer, or fall 2026?

People love asking: “Should I buy in the spring? Wait until fall? Try to time the market?” The transcript’s answer is simple: you can’t time it. Your timing depends on your life, and the best thing you can do is prep. :contentReference[oaicite:31]{index=31}

Here’s the honest OC timing guide

• Spring: more listings, more competition, cleaner comps. Great selection but you’ll need strong execution.
• Summer: still active, sometimes slightly less intense mid-summer depending on micro-market and price tier.
• Fall: fewer listings, but sometimes more negotiable sellers and fewer casual buyers. Great if you’re decisive.
• Winter: slower, fewer listings, but often less noise. Great for buyers who are ready and watching closely.

In Orange County, the “best” time is often the moment your personal affordability + readiness line up—because good homes don’t wait.

FAQ: 2026 housing market questions (OC-focused)

Bottom line: 2026 rewards prepared buyers in Orange County

If you’re buying in Huntington Beach or Orange County in 2026, your biggest advantage isn’t predicting the exact rate on a random Tuesday. Your advantage is building a plan you can execute with confidence.

The forecast points toward a market that’s better—more options, more normal seasonality, and more opportunity to negotiate—while still being structurally competitive in the best OC pockets. :contentReference[oaicite:37]{index=37}

You can’t time the market. Do the prep. When it’s a “hell yes,” move. When it’s not, wait. :contentReference[oaicite:38]{index=38}